It's getting late early for Bitcoin (BTC +0.41%). With just three months left in 2025, Bitcoin is nowhere close to where many experts thought it would be earlier in the year. Back in January, many analysts and investors were calling for Bitcoin to hit $200,000.
That might not happen this year, but there's plenty of reason to think that Bitcoin could still hit a price target of $140,000 by the beginning of 2026. At today's current price of $112,000, that represents a 25% rally in the price of Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin's penchant for late-year heroics
Bitcoin is known for turning in some rousing Q4 performances. In fact, if you look at Bitcoin's historical returns during the period 2013-2024, the average performance in the fourth quarter of the year was a gain of 85%. By far, Q4 is the best quarter of the year for Bitcoin.
In some years, Bitcoin went absolutely parabolic at the end of the year. For example, back in 2020, Bitcoin soared by 168% in the final quarter of the year. In 2017, Bitcoin skyrocketed by 215%. And if you're willing to trust the data from as far back as 2013, then Bitcoin absolutely hit it out of the park, with a dazzling return of 480%.
Once you dig into the statistical data, you can see exactly when things start to turn around for Bitcoin. Bitcoin typically turns in a blistering performance in October and November. So much so that some crypto traders refer to October as "Uptober."
That being said, November actually ranks as the best month of the year for Bitcoin, with an average return of 46% during the period 2013-2024. October ranks second, with an average return of 22%.
All of which is to say -- if you've been disappointed by Bitcoin's lackluster performance in August and September, that's simply following the historical pattern, and there may not be any real need for concern. Historically, Bitcoin has always turned in a middling to awful performance in August and September. Think of it as a veteran baseball slugger who always goes into a slump in September, before breaking out the late-season heroics when it matters the most.
What do the prediction markets think?
In order to ground any Bitcoin prediction in reality, it's helpful to look at the current data from the online prediction markets. There, traders are giving Bitcoin a 63% chance of regaining its all-time high of $125,000 by the end of the year.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Moreover, there's a 47% chance of Bitcoin hitting $130,000 by the start of 2026, and a 32% chance of Bitcoin hitting $140,000. Unfortunately, though, the window of opportunity is closing fast for higher price levels. For example, there's only a 22% chance of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 this year, and a 5% chance of hitting $200,000.
And don't forget about the downside risk with Bitcoin, too. After a less-than-inspiring August and September, sentiment has turned against Bitcoin. It's easy to see this in the online prediction markets. There, traders are giving Bitcoin a 6% chance of slipping below $70,000, which is Bitcoin's previous all-time from the 2020-2021 crypto bull market cycle. And they think there's a 2% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $50,000.
So, putting it altogether, there is approximately a 1-in-3 chance of Bitcoin hitting $140,000 this year. And Bitcoin has roughly the same likelihood of soaring to $200,000 as it does of cratering to $70,000. That gives me confidence that 25% gains are within reach for Bitcoin.
Where does Bitcoin go from here?
In the most likely scenario, Bitcoin goes on another of its famous year-end rallies, just as it did back in 2021. That means Bitcoin could have 25% upside from here, enough to push it past the $140,000 mark in 2025.
But what happens then? Bitcoin typically follows a four-year cycle of boom and bust, and by all indications, we are getting very close to the end of the current four-year cycle. It has now been 17 months since the last Bitcoin halving.
So be careful what you wish for. If Bitcoin indeed soars in price over the next few months, the end of the rally could be much more sudden than many people currently expect. If you're buying Bitcoin now, you need to be prepared to accept considerable volatility ahead.
