In case you haven't heard, President Donald Trump just gave his "strongest signal yet that movement on cannabis policy may be imminent" and that the federal government may be ready to finally legalize marijuana use in the U.S.
That's not just me saying that, either. On Monday, Adam Stettner, chief executive officer of FundCanna (a leading lender to the marijuana industry), explained that the president's posting a CBD promotional video on Truth Social "reflects a shift in thinking from the White House." It was the first time a "sitting president has ever publicly pushed for Medicare to cover cannabinoids" and is likely a "trial balloon" testing public support for legalizing marijuana.
Translation: Marijuana legalization could be coming.
Image source: Getty Images.
What the Trump marijuana video says and who made it
On the off chance you haven't seen the video yet, here's a link. But I can also summarize it for you.
While the president posted the video, he doesn't himself speak in it. Rather, the video was produced by the Commonwealth Project, a nonprofit backed by philanthropist Howard Kessler. It says it "is working to prioritize the 65-plus population by integrating medical cannabis into mainstream healthcare for seniors."
The video does, however, appear to have been addressed to the president, praising him for signing the 2018 Farm Bill that removed hemp from the list of federally controlled substances (so long as it contains less than 0.3% THC) and ending with a photo of the president and a call to action: "You will deliver the most important senior health initiative of the century." The video promises that "millions everywhere will thank you."
So it's pretty clear to whom the video was addressed.
As for the content, well, in format the video feels like a late night infomercial, describing the recent discovery of an "endocannabinoid system" within the human body that weakens with age, causing such symptoms as pain, arthritis, and other health issues. The video notes standard medical practice is to prescribe "dangerous and addictive pharmaceuticals" to treat these symptoms but argues that "hemp-derived CBD" is a better alternative to "restore" the system, curing pain, reducing stress, granting better sleep, and even adding "years" to a person's lifespan!
Sound a bit like a miracle cure to you? But wait, there's more...
A cure for what ails you (and the healthcare system, too)
More than just a cure for physical pain, the Commonwealth Project video argues that widespread use of medical marijuana products could cut up to $64 billion a year from the cost of healthcare in the U.S. For a president who's been trying since his first days in office to cut government spending, that's obviously going to sound attractive, and helps explain why the video was reposted on Truth Social.
Of course, there's a catch. To promote use of medical marijuana over more expensive, traditional pharmaceuticals, the video advocates extending Medicare coverage to purchases of medical marijuana. If the federal government ends up spending money (on marijuana) to save money (on drugs sold by Big Pharma), I suspect marijuana investors are going to be A-OK with that.
When might legalization occur?
As the FundCanna CEO pointed out, this video has the feel of a trial balloon to test voter reaction to "a decision already made or soon to come." Even if this is correct, though, it doesn't mean marijuana will be legalized immediately.
With only three months left in 2025, even assuming a decision has been made, I'd expect it to first become official at the upcoming State of the Union address, which usually takes place in January -- pushing the decision into early next year. At that speech, the president might call upon Congress to pass a bill for his approval, legalizing marijuana use once and for all. Then would come Congressional debate, votes on the bill in the House and Senate followed by a presidential signature some months later. (Given strong Democratic support and now support from the other side of the aisle as well, I assume the law will pass easily.)
My prediction, then, is for marijuana legalization by mid-2026.
What does this mean for investors?
Investors are already taking passage of the bill as a foregone conclusion. Monday saw all the most popular marijuana stock names shoot sharply higher as word of the video's publication spread. Canopy Growth (CGC 0.73%) stock closed 17% higher on Monday, Aurora Cannabis (ACB -0.26%) was up 28%, and Tilray (TLRY 0.62%) shares shot up 60%.
Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF -3.19%), the only major cannabis stock that's based in the U.S., gained more than 37%.
As this story unfolds, expect more of the same in the months ahead.
