Geoffrey Kendrick at Standard Chartered expects XRP (XRP 0.71%) to reach $12.50 by 2028, implying 325% upside from its current price of $2.95. That equates to returns of 62% annually during the next three years, a material slowdown from its return of 87% annually in the last three years.
Meanwhile, Michael Miller at Morningstar estimates the overall cryptocurrency market will be worth $8.5 trillion by 2034. That implies modest growth of 8.4% annually in the next nine years, a material slowdown from 60% annually in the last three years.
Blending those ideas -- XRP can beat the broader market, but the market is likely to grow more slowly in the future -- I think XRP will soar 100% to $5.90 in the next three years, which implies returns of 26% annually during that period. Here's why that seems attainable.
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U.S. regulators have a more favorable opinion of the cryptocurrency industry
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under former Chairman Gary Gensler was widely considered biased against the cryptocurrency industry. The agency leaned heavily on enforcement action but avoided rulemaking, a strategy that not only created uncertainty, but also stifled innovation, according to critics.
However, the SEC has flipped its position under President Trump, who promised to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the world" during his campaign last year. Upon returning to the White House, he quickly signed an executive order aimed at strengthening American leadership in digital assets, and nominated crypto advocate Paul Atkins as SEC chair.
One particularly important change was the SEC's rescission of Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121, a rule that dissuaded financial institutions from offering crypto custody services to clients. SAB 121 probably hindered digital asset adoption among institutional investors, and many experts (including Kendrick) think the removal of that barrier will be a big catalyst for the cryptocurrency industry.
Ripple uses XRP to facilitate fast and cheap cross-border payments
XRP has another important catalyst in Ripple, a fintech company that supports businesses and financial institutions with payment solutions. One product, called on-demand liquidity (previously xRapid), uses XRP as a bridge currency to move money internationally. Doing so is faster and cheaper than wire transfers powered by the SWIFT messaging system.
However, while Ripple has hundreds of customers, very few use XRP and I doubt that will change. It makes little sense to move money with a volatile cryptocurrency when you could use a stablecoin. Incidentally, Ripple addressed that issue by launching a stablecoin called Ripple USD (RLUSD) in December 2024.
Theoretically, RLUSD could create incremental demand for XRP because payments sent with the stablecoin still require transaction fees paid in XRP. However, RLUSD has yet to move the needle as it competes with more popular stablecoins like USDC. In fact, XRP monthly transaction volume has actually trended lower throughout 2025.
The SEC is expected to approve spot XRP ETFs in October
Perhaps the most important catalyst for XRP is the pending approval of several spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The SEC is expected to make a decision concerning six of those investment products between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25, with a seventh to follow on Nov. 14. Most experts anticipate a favorable outcome for the cryptocurrency.
Spot XRP ETFs could unlock demand from retail and institutional investors that have so far avoided the asset due to hassle and high fees associated with cryptocurrency exchanges. Indeed, Bitcoin has returned 165% since spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, so it stands to reason XRP prices would also trend higher following the approval of a spot ETF.
In closing, investors should understand that cryptocurrency is risky. XRP prices fell more than 20% from a record high twice over the last year, and one of those incidents involved a drawdown of 45%. Investors that lack the tolerance for that type of volatility should avoid XRP.
