While XRP (XRP 0.57%) is up about 45% for the year, it's hardly been on a straight upward trajectory. XRP, just like every other cryptocurrency, took a hit after sweeping global tariffs were announced by the Trump administration. And after an impressive summer rally, much of the hype and buzz surrounding XRP has suddenly fizzled.
So where will XRP be in one year? Let's take a closer look at three key catalysts that could determine the trajectory of XRP in 2026.
Spot ETF approvals
First and foremost, the Securities and Exchange Commission is scheduled to consider approving a handful of new spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. All told, six different spot ETF applications could get the green light this month, starting on Oct. 18.
These spot XRP ETF approvals would give XRP instant mainstream acceptance and make it much easier for large institutional investors and individuals to add it to their portfolios. According to some estimates, as much as $8 billion in new money could pour into XRP once the spot ETFs start trading.
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The big question, though, is just how much of this catalyst has already been priced into XRP. After all, investors have been talking about these spot ETF approvals since the beginning of the year. So there's not going to be a positive surprise when they are actually approved.
Right now, just about everyone thinks that there is a 95% or better chance of approval. It's really just a matter of when, not if, they are approved. Thus, the short-term price impact on XRP might be less than many people expect.
New crypto market regulation
Although the Trump administration has taken a decidedly pro-crypto stance, that doesn't guarantee that XRP is going to play a key role in future crypto developments within the U.S. during the next year. Banks and major financial institutions need to feel comfortable using its blockchain technology to move money around the world.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
For that reason, market participants are keeping a close eye on the new Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (i.e., the Clarity Act), which is supposed to be the next major piece of crypto legislation passed by the U.S. Congress. In July, the Congress passed the Genius Act to regulate stablecoins, and the thinking was that the Clarity Act would soon follow.
But the federal government shutdown puts all of this at risk. Right now, market participants think the shutdown will last weeks, not days. And the amount of political infighting involved could lead to an unwelcome setback for this major piece of crypto legislation. So keep an eye on how events unfold in Washington during the next few months.
Will XRP ever replace SWIFT?
For quite some time, crypto enthusiasts have proposed that the XRP blockchain (known as the XRP Ledger) might provide an alternative to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment network. The XRP blockchain ledger provides near-instantaneous settlement of transactions and charges only minimal fees.
That's exactly why many now think XRP could one day replace SWIFT, which is using 50-year-old technology and is currently facing pressure to implement change. With that in mind, SWIFT is now testing various blockchain solutions to aid in creating faster, cheaper, and easier cross-border payments.
The good news is that SWIFT has already announced plans for a trial of the XRP payment network. If the trial goes well, then there could be a new uptick in adoption of XRP over the next 12 months.
Roughly $150 trillion in transactions flows through SWIFT on an annual basis, and if only 1% of that gets redirected to XRP, it could provide a huge $1.5 trillion spike in demand for the XRP token.
Just keep in mind: Any convergence of legacy technology and blockchain technology will likely involve many different blockchains. In other words, all the spoils of war won't just go to Ripple (the company behind the XRP token). Other blockchains, including Ethereum, could also play a role in helping to replace or revitalize SWIFT.
How high can XRP go over the next year?
In a worst-case scenario, XRP might continue to trade around the $3 mark. If the new spot ETFs turn out to be a nothing-burger, and if Congress can't put together another piece of comprehensive crypto legislation by the end of the year, that might be the case.
In a best-case scenario, the combination of all three catalysts might send XRP close to its all-time high of $3.84. Right now, online prediction markets are giving XRP a 47% chance of breaking through the $3.75 price level by the end of 2025, and a 42% chance of hitting $4.
Longer term, it's possible to see XRP going even higher. For example, the U.K. multinational bank Standard Chartered recently predicted that it might hit $5.50 by the end of this year, before rallying to the $12.50 by 2028.
There's obviously a lot to be hopeful about when it comes to XRP. But investors should definitely keep their expectations in check. A lot still needs to go right for it to finally hit its full potential over the next year.
