When Plug Power (PLUG 13.30%) went public in 1999, it planned to build hydrogen charging systems for homes to disrupt traditional power companies. That ambitious plan dazzled the bulls, and its stock surged from its reverse split-adjusted IPO price of $150 to a record high of $1,498 per share at the peak of the dot-com bubble in early 2000.
But like many start-ups that went public during the dot-com boom, Plug Power overpromised and underdelivered. High infrastructure costs, regulatory challenges, and soft consumer demand for residential hydrogen systems all shattered its dream of building residential hydrogen charging systems.
Image source: Getty Images.
Today, Plug Power primarily sells hydrogen fuel cells, charging systems, electrolyzers, and storage systems. It has already deployed 72,000 fuel cell systems and 275 fueling stations, and it generates most of its revenue by selling fuel cells and charging systems for Amazon's and Walmart's hydrogen-powered forklifts. The two retail giants are also Plug Power's top investors through their stock warrants. Its electrolyzers enable large companies to generate their own on-site hydrogen.
But as of this writing, Plug Power's stock trades at less than $4. Its early investors, who had dreamt of multibagger gains, are now sitting on massive losses. Let's see if this out-of-favor hydrogen stock might heat up again and deliver life-changing gains over the next few years.
What happened to Plug Power over the past few years?
In 2020, Plug Power's revenue turned negative because it was subsidizing its sales of fuel cells and charging systems to Amazon and Walmart with new stock warrants. Those unusual subsidies eclipsed its other customer payments, and it was forced to restate its financials. After that restatement, Plug's revenue turned positive again in 2021.
Its revenue rose by the high double digits in 2022 and 2023, but a lot of that growth was driven by its acquisitions of two smaller cryogenic storage companies instead of the organic expansion of its core hydrogen fuel cell, charger, and electrolyzer businesses. That's why its operating and net losses widened.
|
Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
1H 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
$701 million |
$891 million |
$629 million |
$308 million |
|
Growth (YOY) |
40% |
27% |
(29%) |
17% |
|
Operating Margin |
(97%) |
(151%) |
(321%) |
(116%) |
|
Net Income (Loss) |
($724 million) |
($1.37 billion) |
($2.10 billion) |
($426 million) |
Data source: Plug Power. YOY = Year-over-year.
In 2024, Plug's revenue fell as it lapped those acquisitions and the macro headwinds curbed the market's appetite for new hydrogen charging projects. But in 2025, its revenue rose again, and it narrowed its losses as the hydrogen market stabilized. Its electrolyzer sales -- which rose 230% year over year in the first half of 2025 and accounted for 18% of its top line -- are notably offsetting its slower sales of fuel cells and declining sales of charging systems. That's because more companies are installing its electrolyzers to comply with decarbonization initiatives and earn government subsidies for green hydrogen projects.
As Plug's top-line growth stabilizes, it's ramping up production of green hydrogen at its plants in Texas and Georgia, and it launched a joint venture with Olin to build a new hydrogen liquefaction plant in Louisiana. That increased scale, along with its increased pricing power, should boost its gross margins. As for its operating margins, it recently launched "Project Quantum Leap" -- a new cost-cutting initiative aimed at trimming its annual expenses by up to $200 million -- to re-size its business.
Could Plug Power deliver life-changing gains?
The past few years were challenging for Plug Power, but analysts expect its revenue to rise 13% in 2025, 24% in 2026, and 22% in 2027 as the hydrogen market expands again. Its new $1.66 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Trump Administration's extension of tax credits for the hydrogen industry through 2027 should keep it solvent as it gradually narrows its net losses.
Grand View Research expects the green hydrogen market to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.5% from 2025 to 2030, so Plug Power could have plenty of room to grow. With a market cap of $4.6 billion, its stock still looks reasonably valued at 5 times next year's sales.
Assuming Plug Power matches analysts' estimates through 2027, continues to grow its revenue at a robust CAGR of 20% for the next 18 years, and trades at a more generous 10 times sales by the final year, its market cap could rise nearly 63 times to $288 billion over the next 20 years.
That would certainly be a life-changing gain, but it would require the company to successfully break out of its niche, scale up its business, and generate stable profits. If you think it can check all of those boxes, it might be worth nibbling on today as a speculative hydrogen play.
