Ford Motor Company (F 0.95%) has faced its fair share of issues in 2025. Not only is it currently navigating its way around a whipsaw of tariff impacts and removal of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicle (EV) purchases, but the Detroit icon is also currently setting a full-year record for vehicle recalls.
Now, even as the automaker is busy sorting issues that are under its control, a new issue has popped up -- and it could cost the automaker a cool $1 billion in EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes).
What's going on?
Surprise, Ford investors! If you woke up at any point this week hoping for better headlines, you're unfortunately out of luck -- and the financial impact is about to be very serious. A fire at a New York aluminum plant is expected to limit production of Ford's highly profitable F-150 full-size truck for months, according to analysts at Evercore ISI.
Ford is also hitting the pause button on production of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup in Dearborn, Michigan, because of the same aluminum-plant fire. It's an unfortunate development after a third quarter in which the F-150 Lightning delivered a sales gain of nearly 40% and was America's best-selling electric pickup.
A memo shared with workers at the plant, which was viewed and reported on by Reuters, noted that the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center will be off as soon as next week. The unfortunate event began with a Sept. 16 fire at the Novelis plant in Oswego, New York, and will affect the supply of aluminum for Ford's best-selling F-150 trucks through the remainder of 2025.
Ford F-150 Lightning. Image source: Ford Motor Company.
"Novelis is one of several aluminum suppliers to Ford. Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions," a spokesperson for Ford said in a statement, according to Automotive News.
Now what?
This not only adds to the list of issues Ford is currently facing, but also continues a series of supply chain disruptions. They have included microchip shortages, elevated steel and aluminum prices, a rapidly evolving trade and tariff environment, and a battered supplier base that has been dealing with hit after hit dating back to the 2023 union strike and the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The fire and supplier disruption will add to the coming EV slowdown during the fourth quarter, and ding earnings to a notable degree. While this isn't limited to Ford and will impact Stellantis and Toyota Motor as well, the folks at the Blue Oval are expected to see the largest fallout, according to analysts at Evercore.
The timing is also a bit unfortunate, as Ford just posted a solid 8.5% light-vehicle sales gain in the U.S. market during the third quarter. That included a substantial 30% gain in EV sales during the period, up to 30,612 vehicles, enough to mark a third-quarter record for the automaker.
Momentum was already expected to come to a screeching halt when the evaporating federal EV tax credit ended with the month of September, leading to a very likely lull in fourth-quarter demand for EVs. But now with a disruption to F-150 Lightning sales, the fourth quarter will likely be even worse for the company's EV momentum.
Ford can't catch a break right now. Long-term investors would be wise to focus more on what the automaker can specifically control, such as improving quality and lowering warranty costs associated with excessive recalls.
