Ever since the S&P 500 bull market took shape three years ago, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has led the way. Investor excitement for this multitrillion-dollar opportunity has powered all members of the "Magnificent Seven" higher.
But AI isn't the only trend that has investors envisioning dollar signs. In 2025, the hype surrounding quantum computing pure-play stocks has been surreal. While some Magnificent Seven members are offering quantum solutions and/or developing quantum computing hardware, it's Wall Street's four pure-play stocks that have captivated audiences. One look at their respective trailing-12-month gains, as of the closing bell on Oct. 17, shows why:
- IonQ (IONQ 0.73%): 412%
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI 7.61%): 4,940%
- D-Wave Quantum (QBTS 6.31%): 3,590%
- Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT 7.35%): 2,310%
Yet in spite of these potentially life-altering returns, some Wall Street analysts believe these quantum computing stocks are just getting started.
Image source: Getty Images.
Wall Street's high-water price targets point to further upside for quantum computing pure-play stocks
Keeping in mind that price targets issued by financial institutions and analysts tend to be fluid and are often reactive, not proactive, four Wall Street analysts have set outlier targets on this quantum computing quartet:
- IonQ: Analyst Craig Ellis at Riley Securities has a Street-high target of $100 on IonQ, which represents potential upside of 59%. Ellis raised his and his firm's price target from $75 to $100 in September following the Quantum World Congress.
- Rigetti Computing: Benchmark analyst David Williams holds the loftiest price target on Rigetti after raising his and his firm's price target on the company from $20 to $50 two weeks ago. Williams' research note supporting the price target hike points to Rigetti's operational execution and early-stage contracts as reason for optimism. If accurate, Rigetti possesses 8% additional upside from where it closed on Oct. 17.
- D-Wave Quantum: Analyst Suji Desilva of Roth Capital sits atop the pedestal as the biggest Wall Street bull of D-Wave Quantum stock. Desilva's price target of $50, which was upped from $20 last week, points to 30% additional upside. Desilva's research note accompanying the price target hike lists D-Wave Quantum's signing of a European customer as a catalyst.
- Quantum Computing Inc.: Ascendiant Capital's Edward Woo possesses the loftiest price target on Quantum Computing, Inc., with a bullseye set for $40/share, up from a prior forecast of $22. Woo's recently upped price target is based on projections of meaningful future sales growth and the commercialization of the company's products. If Woo's prognostication proves correct, Quantum Computing, Inc. stock can rally another 118%!
There's little doubt that this technology has high-ceiling potential. Quantum computing can revolutionize drug development, weather forecasting, cybersecurity, and even the way AI algorithms "teach" software and systems.
But it's also an extremely new technology being brought to the forefront by a group of unproven businesses.
Image source: Getty Images.
Wall Street's quantum computing darlings may have bit off more than they can chew
No one can deny that IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have changed investors' fortunes over the last year. But expecting gains of 412% to 4,940% to be sustainable with so many questions unanswered is unwise.
As much as investors might dislike the following historical correlation, there hasn't been a single game-changing trend in over three decades that's avoided an eventual bubble-bursting fall from grace. Though it's impossible to predict when bubbles will form and burst, history has been quite clear that investors have persistently overestimated the utility and adoption of new technologies and hyped trends.
While quantum computing does offer plenty of real-world intrigue, its commercialization and real-world use cases appear to be years away. This is a technology that's nowhere close to being optimized.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
Further, it's not clear if any businesses are generating a recurring profit from the sale or use of quantum computer hardware or services. Though the global addressable market for quantum computing is mouthwatering, there's virtually no evidence of this technology being commercialized broadly or with any ongoing success at the moment. These are hallmarks of a bubble that'll eventually burst.
Building on this point above, IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing, Inc. aren't remotely close to being profitable on a recurring basis. Early estimates suggest D-Wave Quantum might have a shot at profits in 2029, while annual losses for IonQ and Rigetti Computing continue until the turn of the decade, if not longer.
History also suggests the otherworldly valuations currently assigned to this quantum computing quartet aren't sustainable.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in early 2000, the public companies that were leading the internet revolution on Wall Street commonly peaked at trailing-12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 30 to 40, with a little bit of wiggle room at the upper end of the range. The current TTM P/S ratios for these pure-play stocks, as of Oct. 17, are:
- IonQ: 274
- Rigetti Computing: 1,484
- D-Wave Quantum: 440
- Quantum Computing Inc.: 8,644
Even with high double-digit or triple-digit sales growth, all four of these quantum computing pure-plays will remain at or above this historically unsustainable P/S ratio range associated with game-changing technologies and trends.
While lofty price targets exist for Wall Street's hottest quantum computing stocks, history paints a different picture.
