Wall Street analysts don't know what to make of Lucid Group (LCID 1.72%) stock. Some are predicting 50% downside over the next 12 months, while others think shares could nearly triple in value. What's the truth? Let's look at two expert predictions.
NASDAQ: LCID
Key Data Points
This analyst thinks Lucid Stock could fall 50% or more
Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, has covered Lucid stock since 2021 -- the year Lucid went public through a merger with Churchill Capital Corp. IV. At the time, Nelson was fairly bullish. His price target of $25 per share was above the prevailing trading price of around $20 per share on a pre-split basis.
"With first-class specs on its forthcoming luxury EV models, strong balance sheet and management team, and brand new factory in Arizona, LCID appears to check all the boxes of an industry newcomer with staying power," Nelson told clients in 2021. He did, however, add an important warning, cautioning that "investors might encounter some speed bumps, as LCID's closest competitor (Tesla) has established a formidable competitive moat."
What has happened since Nelson's original prediction? Lucid stock has shed more than 90% of its value. Ouch. Perhaps that experience has soured Nelson on Lucid stock, given that his current price target is just $10. This suggests more than 50% in potential downside, earning a strong sell rating from his firm.
"While LCID's Y/Y volume increases were impressive on a percentage basis, we were expecting much higher volumes with the September 30 expiration of the federal EV tax credit," Nelson said in a recent report. This is a reasonable concern. Federal tax credits for electric vehicle (EV) purchases expired last month, leading to a surge in purchases for other EV makers, like Tesla, as consumers raced to place their orders before financial incentives disappeared.
If sales growth failed to impress with this one-time growth driver, it could signal a lack of interest from consumers. And given there could be a demand overhang following the expiration of federal tax credits, Lucid could face a difficult few quarters. But none of this has stopped the expert below from strongly recommending Lucid stock to investors.
Image source: Getty Images.
Don't give up on Lucid stock in 2026
Mickey Legg, an analyst at Benchmark Co., is very bullish on Lucid stock. His price target is $70, implying nearly 200% in potential upside. Legg lists three reasons for his bullishness.
First, he believes electric car adoption will accelerate in 2026. That's a hugely contrarian take, considering the expiration of federal tax credits is expected to create a slump in demand over the next few quarters.
Second, he lauds Lucid's "advanced technology" and "highly integrated manufacturing capabilities." Lucid's recent partnership with Uber Technologies highlights this reality. Lucid's management has long envisioned the company more as a technology provider than a car manufacturer. But for now, it's a difficult opportunity to value.
Finally, Legg admires Saudi Arabia's huge stake in Lucid. This partnership has arguably helped keep Lucid afloat, providing consistent financing for growth. But it has come at a cost to smaller investors in the form of dilution.
All in all, Legg does have merit to his viewpoints. But they don't signal any near-term momentum for the company. Sales for its new Gravity SUV may disappoint, given recent data points, and the company's tech stack and deep-pocketed investors are more long-term bonuses than short-term drivers of sales and margin expansion.
Garrett Nelson, the analyst at CFRA, may be overly bearish, given that he has been burned by Lucid stock in the past. But his rationale holds up better than Legg's for now.
