I'm shopping for deals as we kick off the holiday season. I had a few ideas for Black Friday deals, with stocks trading at least 40% lower in 2025. Now it's Cyber Monday. Let's look at some even deeper year-to-date losses on potential turnaround stories.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU +1.23%), Cava (CAVA 1.53%), and Freshpet (FRPT +1.60%) have all shed at least half their value in 2025. Let's take a closer look at these hard-hit stocks that could be Cyber Monday steals at more than 50% off this year.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Lululemon: down 52% in 2025
There was a time when Lululemon was the class act of athleisure apparel stocks. Now, its impressive streak of 19 years of double-digit revenue growth is expected to end, as the company kicked off this year with only single-digit growth in back-to-back quarters. We'll see what the third quarter brings next week.
Sure, there are things worse than slowing growth, but the bottom line at Lululemon is a problem. Earnings have declined through the first half of this fiscal year, and comps have turned negative in the Americas, weighing on the chain's store-level operating margin.
The bigger profitability hit is coming from its contracting gross margin. Tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exception find Lululemon warning of a $240 million reduction in gross profit this fiscal year. The company's inability to pass on cost increases to its fashion-forward shoppers is a bad sign.
NASDAQ: LULU
Key Data Points
Analysts see revenue growth decelerating to a 3% year-over-year increase in the fiscal third quarter it reports on Dec. 11, on a 22% drop in earnings per share. They're also bracing for revenue growth to turn negative over the holiday quarter, before rebounding next year.
This is a pretty gloomy near-term snapshot for Lululemon. Allow me to revisit a more pessimistic stance I had a few weeks ago, at a Fool Fest 2025 presentation. American Express (AXP +0.40%) started a promotion for holders of the personal Platinum charge card in late September, giving them $75 in quarterly Lululemon credit. I argued that the partnership would hurt Lululemon, diminishing the value of the brand. Whatever Lululemon was paying to be a benefit on the flagship AmEx card would result in corseting the already-thinning margins.
Now that I've had two quarters of Lululemon credit across a couple of family cards, I'm more enthusiastic about the quality of the product. Many people are buying Lululemon for the first time, and while it's coming at a deeply discounted value proposition, today's thinning margin could become tomorrow's growth opportunity.
Lululemon stock is trading at a reasonable 14 times forward earnings. With analysts expecting revenue and earnings to resume growing again in the new fiscal year starting in February, today's discount could also become tomorrow's wealth-building opportunity.
NYSE: CAVA
Key Data Points
2. Cava: down 57%
The good news is that Cava is one of the few fast-casual restaurant chains still experiencing growth in store-level sales. The bad news is that those comps have risen just 2.1% and 1.9% in the past two quarters, not even keeping pace with inflation. Cava stock is also not textbook cheap, even after surrendering 72% of its value from its all-time high last November. It trades at a revenue multiple of 5, high for company-owned eateries, and fetches a forward earnings multiple of 84, which is high for any industry.
Don't read too much into the lack of adjusted earnings. It costs money to build an empire rapidly, which explains why revenue was still growing at a 20% clip in recent quarters, despite the cold comps. That expansion runway is still long, with plenty of room to grow for the hot Mediterranean concept with only 415 locations across the country.
If you're worried about how Cava will hold up in a recession, consider that the affluent tend to hold up better than the masses in an economic downturn. A whopping 59% of the company's customer base has annual household incomes topping $100,000. Its young audience, which skews slightly female, is loyal to the brand.
NASDAQ: FRPT
Key Data Points
3. Freshpet: down 61%
It's not a stretch to say that pet food stocks are in the market's doghouse these days. Freshpet is an innovative leader, with a surprisingly strong moat within its niche of refrigerated pet food. Its advantage stems from the early wisdom to outfit grocery stores and mass market retailers with branded coolers stocking its fresh cat and dog food. The company competes against dozens of rivals at pet retailers, but most supermarkets and department store operators are unlikely to allocate more store space for other branded fridges from Freshpet's rivals.
Live Cava, Freshpet is still cranking out double-digit sales growth. But the increases are decelerating, and this will be the first year since 2017 that revenue fails to top 20%.
The bottom line, however, is faring better. After years of losses, Freshpet turned profitable last year, and it's building on that in 2025. Paying 36 times Freshpet's projected 2026 earnings may not seem like a bargain, but things should get better. The trend of humanizing pets, combined with a hard push through TV ads, should woo more pet owners to Freshpet to feed their furry friends.
