With all the recent talk about Las Vegas being "dead" due to declining tourism, you may expect shares in MGM Resorts International (MGM +1.12%) to be deep in the red for 2025. After all, the company, based in the heart of the city, is one of the two largest operators of casinos on the Las Vegas strip.
However, despite its high exposure to Vegas, the company and its shares have weathered the storm fairly well. In fact, while shares experienced rollercoaster price action throughout 2025, following a recent rally, they are actually in the green year to date, up 2.57%.
As I recently pointed out, MGM's stock price performance has lagged behind that of the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Still, even though the stock hasn't exactly set the world on fire this year, a different story could unfold in 2026.
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A possible reason for MGM's resilience
As seen in the company's latest quarterly financial results, MGM Resorts International has experienced the same sort of Vegas-related headwinds that affected the performance of Las Vegas resort properties owned by Caesars Entertainment (CZR 0.78%), MGM's main competitor.
In turn, this has resulted in MGM reporting fiscal results that are very similar to those of its rival. For instance, during the nine-month period ended Sept. 30, 2025, weak results from its Las Vegas Strip operations led to the company reporting essentially zero revenue growth compared to the nine-month period ended Sept. 30, 2024.
NYSE: MGM
Key Data Points
With adjusted EBITDA, the story remains largely the same. For the nine-month period ending Sept. 30, 2025, MGM Resorts International reported a 4.9% drop in companywide adjusted EBITDA. For comparison, Caesars Entertainment reported a 4.2% decline in companywide adjusted EBITDA over the same period.
So then, in terms of year-to-date price performance, has MGM Resorts outperformed Caesars? While it is not certain, valuation may be a major factor here. For much of the year, Caesars' shares have traded at a higher forward P/E ratio than MGM's shares.
Setting the stage for a rebound
Currently, MGM Resorts International trades for only 15 times forward earnings. Caesars trades for 29 times forward earnings. That's not to say that MGM should sport a similar valuation.
Results for the coming year are highly uncertain. Sell-side analyst forecasts for 2026 earnings range widely, with the high end of forecasts calling for earnings of $3.31 per share, but the low end calling for earnings of just $0.30 per share.
Still, given the current bearish-leaning sentiment, it may not take much in the way of positive news to drive valuation expansion. MGM's Las Vegas Strip results could improve as soon as this quarter, as one-time expenses like the remodeling of the MGM Grand are now in the rearview mirror.
Other factors could also convince investors to rerate the stock. These include further growth with BetMGM and MGM China, as well as progress with MGM's casino projects in Dubai, UAE and Osaka, Japan. While you may want to take your time before making a purchase, keep an eye out for further developments that may set the stage for a rebound.
