Nvidia (NVDA 1.59%) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL +1.28%) have outpaced the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.35%) year to date, and the following Wall Street analysts are predicting substantial gains in the next year:
- Mark Lipacis at Evercore has set Nvidia with a target price of $352 per share. That implies 95% upside from its current share price of $180.
- Jeff Cantwell at Seaport Research has set Circle with a target price of $280 per share. That implies 215% upside from its current share price of $89.
Here's what investors should know about these magnificent stocks.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia: 95% implied upside
Nvidia specializes in accelerated computing. Its data center graphics processing units (GPUs) and networking equipment are the industry standard in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Not only do Nvidia systems regularly outperform products from competing chipmakers when benchmarked across tasks like training and inference, but also its hardware is supported by an unparalleled suite of software development tools called CUDA.
Naysayers often point to growing demand for custom AI accelerators as a significant threat to Nvidia. While several hyperscale companies have developed custom chips, adoption can be difficult because those chips lack pre-built software development ecosystems like CUDA. Consequently, Nvidia systems often have a lower total cost of ownership when adjacent expenses are counted.
Consequently, many industry experts believe Nvidia will retain over 80%-plus market share in AI accelerators for the foreseeable future. Last year, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote:
We have seen many threats to Nvidia come and go since 2018 -- something like a dozen start-ups, several efforts from merchant competitors such as Intel and AMD, and several custom designs. Most of those have come up short. Competing with Nvidia, a company that spends over $10 billion per year in R&D, is a difficult feat.
Importantly, the Trump administration recently said it would approve sales of Nvidia H200 GPUs in China. Previously, export restrictions had effectively locked the company out of China, the second-largest AI market in the world. Analysts are likely to update their forward earnings estimates as the situation continues to develop, and upward revisions could send Nvidia stock higher in the near term.
However, Nvidia is a worthwhile investment whether or not shares pop in the weeks ahead. Grand View Research estimates AI accelerator sales will increase at 29% annually through 2030. That means Nvidia has a long runway for growth despite concerns about an AI bubble. To be clear, I am not ruling out volatility -- Nvidia shares could fall 20% or more -- but I think the stock will continue to beat the S&P 500 as the AI revolution unfolds.
Wall Street expects Nvidia's earnings to increase at 37% annually over the next three years. That makes the current valuation of 44 times earnings look reasonable. I am skeptical about the stock returning 95% in the next year, but the current price is attractive.
NYSE: CRCL
Key Data Points
Circle Internet Group: 215% implied upside
Circle is a fintech company that mints stablecoins and provides developer services. It is best known for USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar. USDC is the second-largest stablecoin by market value behind Tether, but it is the largest stablecoin ecosystem that complies with regulatory requirements in the United States and Europe.
Circle primarily earns revenue from interest on reserve assets (i.e., the fiat currency held in reserve to back its stablecoins). However, the company recently expanded into payments with the Circle Payments Network (CPN), which settles transactions almost instantly and addresses use cases like supplier payments, employee payroll, and online shopping.
The stablecoin market is worth $315 billion today. Several analysts think that figure will hit $2 trillion by 2030, implying annual growth of 45%. However, other estimates are even more optimistic. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently predicted the stablecoin market would hit $3 trillion by 2030, and Bernstein analysts think it will reach $4 trillion by 2035.
Circle should be a big winner. Scale and regulatory compliance have made it the preferred stablecoin among financial institutions. JPMorgan analysts write, "Transparent reserve management and regular audits make it more trustworthy among institutional investors and other regulated entities." The note specifically emphasizes compliance with regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and Europe.
Wall Street estimates Circle's revenue will increase at 32% annually through 2027. That makes the current valuation of 8.2 times sales look fairly attractive. Investors should feel comfortable buying a small position at the current price, though Jeff Cantwell's target (which implies 215% upside) is probably too optimistic.
