Nebius (NBIS 7.12%) generated some massive gains over the past year. It was once known as Yandex, which owned Russia's top search engine and a broad range of websites, apps, and cloud-based services. But its shares were suspended in early 2022 as the sanctions against Russia devalued the Russian ruble and halted its expansion plans.
To survive that existential crisis, it divested its Russian assets, kept its non-Russian businesses, and rebranded itself as Nebius, an Amsterdam-based provider of cloud infrastructure services for the artificial intelligence (AI) market. After that restructuring, it returned to the Nasdaq on Oct. 21, 2024, and resumed trading at $14.29 per share.
Image source: Getty Images.
Today, Nebius' stock trades at about $98. A $10,000 investment on its first trade would be worth more than $68,500 today. Let's see why Nebius attracted a stampede of bulls -- and if a fresh $10,000 investment might grow to more than $1,000,000 over the next few decades.
Why is Nebius growing so rapidly?
AI algorithms must be processed with powerful data center GPUs, but it can be expensive and time-consuming for a company to build its own AI infrastructure. Nebius loosens that bottleneck by providing its customers with cloud-based access to the GPUs on its own servers.
Unlike CoreWeave (CRWV 10.06%), which mainly processes GPU-intensive tasks with its cloud-based GPUs, Nebius is a "full stack" AI infrastructure company which integrates managed software services like Kubernetes into its data centers. It also provides customized AI infrastructure services for the data training, edtech, and robotics markets.
NASDAQ: NBIS
Key Data Points
Nebius owns one first-party data center in Finland, and it leases additional data centers through colocation deals in Missouri, France, and Iceland. It's currently building a second first-party data center in New Jersey, and it recently signed another colocation deal in the U.K.
In 2024, its revenue soared 462% to $117.5 million. But its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at negative $266.4 million. In the first nine months of 2025, its revenue surged 437% year over year to $302.1 million as its adjusted EBITDA rose from negative $162.4 million to negative $79.9 million.
Nebius also said it had "sold out of all available capacity" by the end of the third quarter, and it expected to generate an annualized run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion in revenue by the end of 2026. That rosy outlook means that by the end of next December, Nebius expects its monthly revenue -- when multiplied by 12 -- to reach $7 billion to $9 billion. That doesn't mean it will generate that much revenue on an annual basis yet, but it implies it's an achievable long-term goal.
What could happen over the next few years?
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Nebius' revenue to grow at a CAGR of 302%. They also expect its adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2026 and more than triple in 2027.
|
Metric |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
$556.4 million |
$3.31 billion |
$7.63 billion |
|
Growth (YOY) |
374% |
494% |
131% |
|
Adjusted EBITDA |
($82.6 million) |
$1.36 billion |
$4.87 billion |
Data source: Marketscreener. YOY = Year-over-year.
A lot of that growth should be driven by Microsoft (MSFT 1.02%) and Meta Platforms (META 1.34%), which signed $17.4 billion and $3 billion five-year deals, respectively, with Nebius this year. It should gain even more customers as the AI market expands and it opens up more data centers.
To support that expansion, it plans to secure 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power (and up to 1 GW of that power ready for GPU deployment) by the end of 2026. That's nearly five times the 220 GW in GPU-ready capacity it expects to reach by the end of 2025.
Could Nebius be a millionaire-maker stock?
With a market cap of $24.7 billion, Nebius still looks reasonably valued at 7.5 times its 2026 sales and 3.3 times its 2027 sales. According to Grand View Research, the AI infrastructure market could continue expanding at a CAGR of 30.4% from 2024 to 2030.
Nebius can't maintain its triple-digit growth rates forever. But if it matches analysts' expectations through 2027, grows its top line at a CAGR of 30% over the following eight years, and trades at a more generous 10 times sales, its market cap could rise 25 times to $622 billion by 2035. That would turn a $10,000 investment into about $250,000.
If Nebius hits those targets and continues to expand its AI infrastructure ecosystem over the following decades, it could turn that $250,000 into $1,000,000. It's still a speculative stock and faces plenty of competitors in its high-growth niche, but it's worth nibbling on if you expect more companies to outsource their AI tasks to its cloud-based GPUs.
