2025 has been an absolutely dreadful year for Dogecoin (DOGE +9.21%). The world's top meme coin is down an eye-popping 60% for the year.
Things could get much worse for Dogecoin in 2026. I predict that the price of DOGE will sink to under a penny next year, and here's why.
If history is any guide...
First, let's look at the long-term chart for Dogecoin. While the meme coin launched in December 2013, it was not until January 2021 that it finally broke through the penny barrier.
CRYPTO: DOGE
Key Data Points
Admittedly, once it did, Dogecoin went on an epic rally, eventually hitting an all-time high of $0.74 in May 2021. Along the way, some investors became crypto millionaires -- maybe not overnight, but certainly within the span of mere weeks.
However, ever since May 2021, Dogecoin has mostly been trending down. It's now trading 82% below its all-time high, and nothing seems to move the needle much anymore.
In late 2024, there was hype and buzz about Elon Musk -- a noteworthy supporter of Dogecoin in the past -- joining the new pro-crypto Trump administration. The hype train went into overdrive when Musk officially launched the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in early 2025. But where did all that lead? This has been a year to forget for Dogecoin investors.
What if investors decide to value Dogecoin like other meme coins?
Remember: Dogecoin is a meme coin, backed by nothing more than hype, speculation, and buzz. It's all about the vibes. So what if investors start to lose their positive vibes, and decide to value Dogecoin like other dog-themed meme coins?
Image source: Getty Images.
For example, consider Dogecoin's nearest rival, Shiba Inu (SHIB +7.85%). This dog-themed meme coin currently has a market cap of $4.5 billion. Is there any good reason why Dogecoin -- currently valued at $20 billion -- should be worth 4-5 times the value of Shiba Inu? Probably not.
Let's assume that investors wake up one day and decide to value Dogecoin just like Shiba Inu. Given Dogecoin's massive circulating supply of 152 billion coins, that implies a price of $0.03 for Dogecoin -- not quite a penny, but getting there.
Let's go one step further and assume that investors decide to value Dogecoin just like Bonk (BONK +8.14%), the third-largest dog-themed meme coin. The market cap of Bonk is a relatively tiny $715 million. So, again, if you take Dogecoin's circulating supply of 152 billion coins, that leads to an implied price of $0.004 for Dogecoin.
That's how you get to Dogecoin falling to under a penny. If investors decide that Dogecoin should be valued like a second- or third-tier meme coin, then it's nearly inevitable.
That's especially the case since there is no hard cap on the total circulating supply of Dogecoin. On CoinMarketCap, the maximum lifetime supply of Dogecoin is simply listed as the infinity symbol.
If the coin supply ever soars past the current level of 152 billion, there's no telling how low the price of Dogecoin might go. It's just simple supply and demand at that point.
Meme coins are the crypto version of penny stocks
Meme coins are not long-term investments, and were never designed to be. They're the crypto market's version of penny stocks. Sure, they can get pumped up to unsustainable valuations, but sooner or later, they always come crashing back to earth.
Do yourself a favor: Get out of DOGE now while you can. By 2026, it may already be too late. Dogecoin could go to a penny, and from there, the bottom may really fall out.
