Cryptocurrency business Circle Internet Group (CRCL +1.01%) was among the hottest initial public offering (IPO) stocks of 2025. The IPO was priced at $31 per share. But demand from investors was so strong that the stock skyrocketed above $250 per share in short order.
As they say, easy come, easy go. Circle stock has plunged 70% from its all-time high back in June. Granted, it's still more than double its IPO price of $31. But aside from its rapid gains during its first month of trading, Circle stock has trended lower, leaving investors wondering about its outlook for 2026.
Image source: Getty Images.
While there are concerns about Circle stock in the coming year, there may be more going on under the hood than many investors realize.
Some storm clouds on the horizon
I don't necessarily see a hurricane approaching off the starboard bow. But I do see some storm clouds ahead in 2026 that Circle's shareholders should be aware of.
NYSE: CRCL
Key Data Points
The first storm cloud is the drop in federal interest rates. Circle issues the popular stablecoin USDC. To operate a stablecoin, issuers need to maintain substantial cash reserves in case stablecoin holders wish to redeem their stablecoins for cash. The company makes most of its money from these reserves. But how much it can make is dependent on interest rates.
Interest rates have already dropped to their lowest levels in three years. And more cuts are potentially on the horizon. This simply means that Circle could be generating less revenue from the same deposits.
Effective Federal Funds Rate data by YCharts.
The other storm cloud relates to the cryptocurrency space as a whole. Adoption typically declines during a bear market. And it could be trending in that direction in 2026.
As goes Bitcoin, so too usually goes the entire cryptocurrency space. On average, the price of Bitcoin drops by 60% or more every few years. Using history as a guide, it's about due for a major pullback. And it's already down 30% from its all-time high. The coming year could be a quiet one for cryptocurrency, which would likely hinder adoption of Circle's USDC stablecoin.
Even though there are storm clouds, there's more to Circle's story than this.
Circle's stabilizing pivots
Circle is leveraging its expertise in stablecoins -- digital currencies that are pegged to a stable value, such as the U.S. dollar -- to build the Circle Payment Network (CPN). Digital transactions move money around through established financial institutions using a specific set of "pipes." Circle, however, ran its own pipes for CPN. And it's becoming a big deal.
Circle's CPN only just launched in mid-2025. But the company already has more than 50 partners on board and another 500 waiting for an opportunity to join. Partners enjoy easy onboarding and cross-border capabilities with regulatory compliance. And Circle says that it's already processing volumes at an annualized rate of $3 billion.
When much bigger, Circle's CPN could stabilize the business during times when interest rates are lower, or crypto adoption cools down. The company's recent move to become a real bank could also stabilize the business.
On Dec. 12, Circle received conditional approval for a regulated trust bank, which it calls First National Digital Currency Bank. If fully approved, it will give the company greater control over its reserves. But it will also open up new banking opportunities.
Investors got another glimpse of Circle's potential on Dec. 18 when Intuit announced a major partnership. Intuit owns major financial platforms, including TurboTax and Credit Karma. And rather than build its own crypto solutions, it's partnering with Circle. How exactly this deal (and deals like this one) can help Circle's business remains to be seen. But it's almost certainly a good thing to score a partner of Intuit's caliber.
The takeaway
Circle is becoming much more than just a stablecoin business. It's trying to become the financial infrastructure layer in the new cryptocurrency economy. And to be sure, it's a leader in the space, making it an interesting company to watch from here.
That said, I am personally only watching Circle stock for now, not buying. This is because there are still significant questions as to how all of the company's new efforts will be monetized. Moreover, for the time being, this business remains primarily a stablecoin-focused operation, which I believe will face headwinds in the coming year.
I believe investors have time to patiently watch Circle from the sidelines. However, if some of the company's newer offerings truly begin to gain traction, it may soon be time to invest.
