Shares of Intel (INTC 1.07%) soared nearly 90% in 2025 as a new CEO took the reins. The U.S. government, Nvidia, and SoftBank injected billions of dollars through equity investments, bolstering Intel's balance sheet, while layoffs and other cost-cutting measures reduced expenses.
Several factors must align for Intel in 2026 for the stock to continue its rally, and the company will need to overcome a major headwind.
Image source: Intel.
Foundry, CPUs, and memory prices
First and foremost, Intel needs to secure a major customer for its foundry business. Rumors have emerged that Apple is considering a version of the Intel 18A process, which would be a huge win if a deal can be worked out. Intel will also need to show tangible progress in securing customers for its upcoming Intel 14A process, which is scheduled for 2027.
Those process nodes will also play a critical role in Intel's product business. Panther Lake and Nova Lake, two PC CPU families that will use the Intel 18A process, are set to launch in 2026. Intel has been losing market share to AMD for years, partly due to Intel's manufacturing edge evaporating. Intel's new manufacturing processes should at least close the gap with TSMC, AMD's manufacturing partner.
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Key Data Points
Working against Intel is the current state of the memory chip market. Memory chip prices are soaring as demand outstrips supply amid the AI boom, and there's little hope for relief anytime soon. This situation will push up the price of PCs, which could hurt demand and make it difficult for Intel's PC CPU business to grow in 2026.
For long-term investors, it's important to remember that the memory chip headwind is temporary. Intel's foundry represents a multi-billion-dollar opportunity, particularly as custom-designed chips proliferate. While Intel stock could go either way in 2026, when you zoom out, the picture looks promising.
