Is 2026 the year Pfizer (PFE +1.04%) finally turns things around? The company has been struggling over the past few years due to poor financial results and looming patent cliffs. However, it has also made important moves that might start to pay off, possibly as early as 2026.
Are Pfizer's shares worth investing in heading into the new year? To try to answer that question, let's consider two things that might happen to the drugmaker in the next 12 months.
1. Progress in oncology
Pfizer has historically had a pretty strong presence in oncology, one of the largest therapeutic areas in the pharmaceutical industry. In the past few years, the company has made significant efforts to expand its presence in this market. It acquired Seagen, a smaller oncology specialist, for $43 billion, thereby gaining access to a substantial pipeline of investigational cancer therapies.
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More recently, Pfizer licensed PF-08634404 ("PF'4404"), a highly promising cancer medicine in development, from China-based 3SBio. It recently announced that it's accelerating the development of PF'4404 and has begun multiple studies, including late-stage clinical trials, with additional studies planned. Next year, Pfizer could report solid clinical progress in oncology across PF'4404 and other candidates.
We may not get full clinical trial data from phase 3 studies for PF'4404, given that these were recently initiated. However, we could expect to see interim analyses as well as results from early-stage studies.
Here's why this is important. Pfizer's work in oncology is a crucial component of its long-term strategy, and positive progress here could jolt the stock. PF'4404 in particular could challenge the world's best-selling cancer drug, Keytruda, in some key markets. There is, therefore, vast potential here. It'll be important for investors to monitor Pfizer's pipeline work in this area.
2. Going after the weight loss market
Oncology might be the larger therapeutic area, but weight management has grabbed more attention and is predicted to grow significantly through the end of the decade (and beyond). Pfizer has several anti-obesity candidates in development.
One is called PF-07976016, an oral GLP-1 medicine that's undergoing phase 2 studies. There is also MET-097i, which Pfizer acquired through an acquisition, and which recently completed phase 2 clinical trials with flying colors. Via a licensing agreement, the company also recently added YP05002, a GLP-1 asset in phase 1 studies.
NYSE: PFE
Key Data Points
We should see some clinical progress from at least some of these medicines next year. MET-097i should initiate phase 3 studies for both weight loss and type 2 diabetes. This candidate looks particularly promising, given its potential once-monthly dosing schedule (a clear differentiator, as the current market leaders are administered once a week) and strong tolerability profile -- and all of this with competitive efficacy demonstrated in phase 2 studies.
Although it may still take some time before Pfizer launches a product in this field, progress over the next 12 months will be crucial to its ultimate goal.
Is Pfizer stock a buy?
Pfizer recently announced its guidance for 2026. One thing seems clear: Its financial results won't get much stronger. It projected revenue between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion; at the midpoint, that would imply a slight decrease from 2025, for which the company is projecting $62 billion in revenue.
One challenge Pfizer will face next year is a struggling COVID-19 vaccine franchise, as authorities in the U.S. have made it more difficult for patients to get vaccinated.
Even with these challenges, Pfizer's pipeline work could help push the stock in the right direction. Even if the company doesn't recover next year, its pipeline looks incredibly promising and should eventually produce enough new products to significantly improve its financial results. That's why the stock still looks attractive for investors who are willing to hold onto its shares for at least the next five years.
