In August 2025, analysts at Standard Chartered raised their forecasts for Ethereum (ETH +1.30%). The firm published a note saying it could reach $25,000 by the end of 2028 -- an upside of over 730% on today's price. I'm going to give them some leeway and say Ethereum might get there in five years.
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Even that may seem inconceivable given its recent disappointing performance. However, with a positive wind and a lot of caveats, it is more achievable than it may seem.
Could Ethereum reach $25,000 in five years?
There are several factors that could drive Ethereum to the moon. For example, in 2025, Ethereum treasury companies like SharpLink Gaming started aggressively building stashes of the second-biggest crypto. There's been a surge in interest in stablecoins following the passing of the Genius Act. Ethereum continues to attract the largest number of developers, per Electric Capital.
However, none of narratives have helped Ethereum maintain this year's gains. So, rather than beefing out those scenarios, here are some numbers that show how Ethereum could generate enough total value locked (TVL) -- the amount of funds on its blockchain -- to reach $25,000 by the end of 2030. TVL isn't the be-all and end-all, but it gives us a way to project how Ethereum might grow.
Ethereum was the first cryptocurrency to introduce smart contracts, tiny pieces of blockchain code that make cryptocurrencies programmable. They are at the heart of the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry. Ethereum's first-mover advantage and reputation for reliability mean it still dominates in terms of TVL.
There's also a strong correlation between TVL and price. Ethereum has grown over 300% since the end of 2020 when the coin's price was $738 and its TVL was around $15 billion. Today its TVL is almost $68 billion, per DeFi Llama -- up over 350%. If we assume that correlation continues, Ethereum would need its TVL to increase by 850% for its price to reach $25,000. That would translate to a TVL of around $650 billion.
CRYPTO: ETH
Key Data Points
What would it take for Ethereum's TVL to reach $650 billion?
For Ethereum's TVL to grow that dramatically, a lot more of our finances would need to move on-chain and Ethereum would have to continue to be the blockchain of choice. As traditional financial institutions look for ways to integrate blockchain technology, stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization offer considerable advantages.
Real-world asset tokenization is a way to record ownership of all kinds of assets on the blockchain. It makes trading easier and more efficient. It also enables fractional ownership on a much greater scale than we see today. Stablecoins are a form of tokenization, as they are blockchain versions of existing currencies.
A TVL of $650 billion would put Ethereum in line with major financial institutions. For example, Capital One (COF +2.30%) has about $652 billion in consolidated assets, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. For context, JPMorgan Chase (JPM +0.81%) tops the list with $3.8 trillion in assets.
A recent Deutsche Bank (DB +2.67%) report predicted that tokenized assets will become the default infrastructure in the coming decades. It estimates the market for tokenized real-world assets, excluding stablecoins, could grow from around $33 billion today to between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion by 2030. That's growth of almost 4,500%.
Citibank (C +1.72%) has similar forecasts for stablecoins. It thinks the stablecoin market could grow from $280 billion today to between $1.6 trillion and $4 trillion in 2030. That's potential growth of over 1,300%.
That puts the combined potential tokenization market at between $3.1 trillion and $6 trillion. Data from rwa.xyz shows that over 75% of the value of the two segments combined are based on Ethereum. Even if Ethereum loses market share and those two markets don't perform as well as expected, there's still a pretty clear path to a TVL of $650 billion or more.
We've been here before
No matter how strong the potential, cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments that should only make up a small percentage of your portfolio. Its blockchain may run into technical difficulties or be overtaken by other smart-contract cryptos. Banks and brokerages may build their own blockchains. It is an exciting space, but there's still a lot we don't know.
The figures above set out a plausible route for Ethereum's TVL to grow and support a $25,000 price hike. However, tokenization is something that crypto enthusiasts have been talking about for years and it hasn't yet taken hold. The coming years may be different, particularly if regulators set clear frameworks. If they are, Ethereum is well positioned to soar.
