To say that D-Wave Quantum (QBTS +2.42%) took investors on a roller-coaster ride in 2025 is an understatement. It started the year off with a bang, and declined by an astounding 50% in just the first few weeks of 2025. Then, it slowly climbed up throughout the year, peaking in October. Following a sell-off, the stock now trades about 40% down from its all-time high. However, because of the massive rally throughout the year, the stock has more than tripled from where it entered 2025.
Despite those strong overall returns, investors want to know if D-Wave can rally to obtain the highs reached just a few months ago. That would result in impressive one-year returns, but is that actually in D-Wave's control?
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D-Wave is taking a unique approach to quantum computing
D-Wave is competing to establish itself as the go-to supplier in the quantum computing realm. The ideal business model for nearly every company competing in this race is to copy Nvidia. Nvidia is the leader in traditional computing units, with its graphics processing units (GPUs) being the most advanced traditional computing units available. Nvidia has carved out a huge market share, with some estimates pegging Nvidia at a 90% market share for GPUs. Nvidia also has awesome unit economics and generates a profit margin in excess of 50% nearly every quarter.
If D-Wave can replicate that, it will be a huge success over the next decade, but it has a long way to go.
Quantum computing technology is still being proven. There is not a true commercial use case for the technology yet, although D-Wave is pursuing an alternative computing method that could give it an edge over the competition.
Instead of building a general-purpose quantum computer that can be deployed in a wide variety of situations, D-Wave is focusing on quantum annealing. Quantum annealing seeks the lowest energy state in a system, representing the ideal solution. This makes D-Wave ideal for optimization problems, which is actually what most of the expected quantum computing applications are.
NYSE: QBTS
Key Data Points
One of the biggest use cases is logistics networks. These are not easily solved utilizing traditional computing methods, but quantum computing can handle these problems because of how quantum computing works versus traditional computing.
Traditional computing uses binary bits, which are either 0 or 1, to convey information. Quantum computing uses qubits, which can capture the superposition between 0 and 1, before eventually collapsing down to a 0 or a 1 once it's measured. This allows quantum calculations to move in many directions, which more accurately reflects how a logistics network acts. D-Wave already has clients that are partnering with it to solve these problems and develop a viable quantum computing solution for them.
Another area where this technology is particularly useful is in generative AI inference. D-Wave recently launched a demo of its AI software that allows for better pattern recognition, making it key to streamlining AI workflows.
D-Wave is taking a unique approach to the quantum computing industry and seeing great results. But does that add up to a stock that can make a comeback for 2026?
D-Wave's stock success is largely out of its hands for the next few years
Until D-Wave starts manufacturing its quantum computing systems at a large scale for commercial clients, its stock is trading on hype. It won't be until around 2030 when quantum computing becomes commercially viable, so until then, D-Wave's stock will trade higher or lower based on news releases and the overall risk tolerance of the market.
As risk tolerance increased throughout 2025, D-Wave's stock thrived. When investors became more risk-averse in October, the stock cratered. I'd expect to see he same behavior in 2026, which may or may not allow the stock to return to all-time highs. However, today's movements are insignificant to the success D-Wave will have if its quantum computing solution becomes a popular option. That would send the stock to new heights, but achieving quantum computing dominance won't be an easy road.
