Vistra (VST +0.26%), one of the largest competitive power generators in the U.S., might not seem like a high-growth stock. Yet over the past three years, its stock surged 655% as the S&P 500 rose 74%. If we include its reinvested dividends, it delivered a total return of 690%. Let's see why Vistra's stock crushed the market, and if it can head even higher over the next year.
What does Vistra do?
Vistra provides power generation and retail electricity services. Its diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities has a combined capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts -- which is enough to power about 22 million homes.
Image source: Getty Images.
The company owns the country's second-largest fleet of nuclear power plants, and it's repurposing retired coal plants to generate and store solar energy. It aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 by expanding its nuclear and solar facilities.
Vistra's retail energy business -- which owns TXU Energy, Dynegy, Homefield Energy, Ambit, and other brands -- sells electricity to roughly five million residential, commercial, and industrial customers. It operates across all of the country's wholesale markets and offers more than 50 renewable energy plans as part of its long-term strategy for achieving net-zero emissions.
NYSE: VST
Key Data Points
How fast is Vistra growing?
From 2020 to 2024, Vistra's revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) both grew at a CAGR of 11%. The market's soaring demand for electricity -- especially from the power-hungry cloud infrastructure, high-performance computing (HPC), and artificial intelligence (AI) markets -- fueled its organic growth.
To support that demand, Vistra expanded its nuclear fleet by acquiring Energy Harbor in 2024, acquired seven natural gas plants from Lotus Infrastructure Partners for $1.9 billion in October 2025, and recently agreed to acquire Cogentrix Energy's ten natural gas plants for $4.7 billion.
This January, Vistra signed a deal to provide Meta Platforms (META 2.52%) with thousands of megawatts of nuclear energy over the next 20 years. Other tech companies will likely follow Meta's lead and sign additional long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with the company to support their expanding cloud, AI, and data center businesses.
As Vistra expanded, it bought back 11% of its shares over the past three years. It recently authorized another $1 billion buyback plan, equivalent to 1.6% of its current market capitalization of $61 billion, which will last through 2027. Its forward dividend yield of 0.5% won't attract any serious income investors, but its low trailing payout ratio of 32% gives it plenty of room for future hikes. It has already raised its dividend for six consecutive years.
What are Vistra's near-term catalysts?
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Vistra's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to both grow at a CAGR of about 13%. The nuclear market's secular growth, its acquisition of Cogentrix's natural gas plants, and its massive deal with Meta should drive that acceleration. It will also likely continue to acquire more nuclear, natural gas, and solar companies to increase its capacity.
Vistra's commitment to expanding its low-carbon and renewable energy businesses also makes it eligible to earn government subsidies and incentives. In the near term, it will likely benefit from the Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC), created under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, and from federal nuclear support policies. Companies that are incentivized to use more clean energy could also sign more long-term PPAs with Vistra.
Where will Vistra's stock be in a year?
With an enterprise value of $78 billion, Vistra's stock still looks reasonably valued at 11 times this year's adjusted EBITDA. If it matches analysts' estimates and maintains the same forward EV/EBITDA ratio, its stock could rise about 13% over the next year.
That gain might seem modest, but it could stay ahead of the S&P 500 -- which has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since its inception. It could deliver even bigger gains if it acquires more companies or secures larger deals with top cloud and AI companies. Therefore, Vistra still looks like a safe place to park your cash for market-beating gains this year.
