Even the otherwise slow-moving financial services industry is being impacted by artificial intelligence (AI). Upstart (UPST 1.59%) is in the driver's seat. It's innovating in the credit space, leaning on its AI model to analyze 2,500 different variables about potential borrowers to better calculate default risk, set rates, and approve more loans.
The fintech stock has been incredibly volatile. It trades 88% below its record (as of Jan. 23). But it has soared 144% in the past 36 months, even though it's down 35% over the past year. Nonetheless, this is an interesting opportunity.
If you buy $10,000 worth of Upstart shares in 2026, will you become a millionaire in 25 years?
Image source: Getty Images.
This outcome isn't that much of a stretch when you do the math
Getting to a $1 million level starting from $10,000 today means that Upstart's stock price (assuming a constant outstanding share count) would need to grow at a compound annual rate of 20% in 25 years. That would be a wonderful outcome that sees an investor's position increase 100-fold in value. What's more, this gain is double the S&P 500's historical annual average of 10%.
Upstart's latest financial results are promising
Investors are pleased with how this business has performed recently from a fundamental perspective. Upstart's revenue jumped 71% year over year in Q3 2025 (ended Sept. 30), which was propelled by a 128% gain in transaction volume. It's encouraging to see such growth.
Personal loans remain Upstart's primary product. But it's finding monster early success in auto loans and HELOCs, which are experiencing surging originations on the platform.
When Upstart reports Q4 results on Feb. 10, management forecasts net income of $50 million for the full year. Putting a lid on engineering and product development costs, which were almost identical in Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, helps the bottom line.
NASDAQ: UPST
Key Data Points
Think about the uncertainty in the long run
Upstart has a massive total addressable market measured in the trillions of dollars, based on annual origination volumes in multiple lending verticals. The fact that it leverages AI and works with banks and credit unions to provide a good value proposition to borrowers is a win for Upstart, its lending partners, and customers.
If everything goes right, Upstart could be a millionaire-maker in 25 years. But it's impossible to predict how things will shake out that far into the future. And there are reasons to be cautious.
I think long-term success is highly uncertain. It's worrying just how cyclical Upstart has been, particularly during the period of rising interest rates in 2022 and 2023, when revenue growth turned sharply negative.
And the money-center banks that dominate the financial services industry aren't just sitting around. They're investing huge sums of capital, employing top technical talent, and working on innovative projects to find better ways of integrating AI into their operations.
The chances are much higher than 50%, in my opinion, that Upstart's returns fall short of a 20% annualized pace over the next 25 years.
