The past few years have been challenging for Moderna (MRNA 4.54%) as the biotech has failed to maintain strong revenue growth from its coronavirus vaccine. The company's shares have significantly lagged the market since 2022. However, the biotech is off to a strong start in 2026.
Moderna stock is already trading up 58% this year. Could this finally be the start of a sustained bull run for the pharmaceutical stock?
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Why the stock is up
Moderna specializes in developing mRNA-based therapies. The company recently released data from a five-year follow-up for a study in which one of its candidates, intismeran autogene, was investigated as a potential treatment for advanced melanoma in combination with Merck's (MRK 0.26%) Keytruda. The study showed that intismeran autogene and Keytruda led to a 49% reduction in disease recurrence or death -- even five years after treatment, compared to Keytruda alone.
This is particularly significant since patients with this disease are typically at high risk of disease recurrence, a problem Moderna's intismeran autogene could help address. Intismeran autogene is currently in a phase 3 study in this indication. It is also being investigated across several other forms of cancer. It is undergoing a total of eight phase 2 or phase 3 studies. If Moderna can make meaningful progress here, we could, indeed, see a sustained run for the company.
NASDAQ: MRNA
Key Data Points
Is the stock a buy?
Moderna had already demonstrated that its mRNA platform was highly innovative. The biotech positioned itself as a leader in the coronavirus vaccine market, a space many of the largest pharmaceutical companies tried to enter, mostly without success. Moderna has since seen clinical progress and launched at least one new product, mRESVIA, a vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus. These successes were fairly modest compared to what we could see with intismeran autogene.
The commercial opportunity across multiple forms of cancer, plus the potential to combine it with the best-established franchise in the oncology market -- Keytruda, the best-selling cancer drug in the world -- could make it a highly successful product. True, Moderna will have to share the profits with Merck, with which it is partnering to develop intismeran autogene. Even so, the therapy could easily exceed blockbuster status at its peak.
Meanwhile, Moderna could make sustained clinical and regulatory progress elsewhere. The company has several more candidates in mid or late-stage clinical trials. Within the next three years, Moderna's lineup of approved products could look different, with intismeran autogene, and, potentially, others.
Yet the stock price is still down massively over the past three years, even after its 2026 run. That's why Moderna is worth serious consideration for long-term investors right now.
