Plug Power (PLUG +0.90%), a developer of hydrogen charging technologies, went public in 1999 at an IPO price of $150, adjusted for a reverse split. Today, it trades at about $2. Is this green energy stock dead, or will it recover and deliver massive gains for its patient investors?
What does Plug Power do?
Plug initially planned to build hydrogen charging systems for entire homes. However, high infrastructure costs, regulatory challenges, and soft consumer demand derailed those plans, and it pivoted toward selling hydrogen cells, electrolyzers, and storage systems.
Image source: Getty Images.
Today, the company generates most of its revenue by selling fuel cells and charging systems for Amazon's (AMZN 1.49%) and Walmart's (WMT +0.92%) hydrogen-powered forklifts. Those two retail giants are also the company's largest investors. As of this writing, it's deployed 72,000 fuel cell systems and 275 fueling stations across the United States.
Why did Plug Power's stock crash?
Plug Power's revenue rose 40% in 2022 and 27% in 2023, but much of that growth was driven by acquisitions of two smaller cryogenic storage companies rather than by organic growth in its core hydrogen fuel cell, charger, and electrolyzer businesses.
In 2024, its revenue declined 29% as the macro headwinds drove many companies to rein in their hydrogen projects. Its operating margin also plummeted from negative 97% in 2022 to negative 321% in 2024, which suggested its capital-intensive business was unsustainable.
NASDAQ: PLUG
Key Data Points
Could Plug Power's stock bounce back?
Despite those challenges, analysts expect Plug Power's revenue to rise 12% in 2025, then grow at a CAGR of 23% over the following two years as the macro environment stabilizes and the green hydrogen market expands. They also expect it to gradually narrow its net losses.
But with a market cap of $2.9 billion, Plug Power still isn't a screaming bargain at three times this year's sales. More importantly, it could lose access to its $1.7 billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Department of Energy, which it secured in the final days of the Biden Administration, after the Trump Administration paused those commitments. It's already suspended the construction of up to six green hydrogen plants associated with that loan.
On the bright side, it's still ramping up green hydrogen production in Texas and Georgia, launched a joint venture with Olin (OLN +2.90%) to build a new hydrogen liquefaction plant in Louisiana, it secured new green hydrogen projects in the U.K., and it's streamlining its spending through its "Project Quantum Leap" initiative. Plug Power isn't down for the count yet, but I don't expect its stock to bounce back unless the Trump Administration changes its tune on the green hydrogen industry.
