Rigetti Computing (RGTI +2.82%) had a wild 2025, with shares falling hard to begin the year before skyrocketing more than 500% from their low in April before falling by more than half before the end of the year.
And the downtrend has continued. January 2026 saw Rigetti's stock drop 18%.
Three distinct forces converged at the same time: a company-specific stumble on its most important product, a macro environment that turned hostile to speculative tech, and a key move from one of Rigetti's biggest competitors.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
Rigetti missed a major milestone while IonQ made a major acquisition
Rigetti's biggest moment heading into 2026 was supposed to be the launch of its Cepheus-1-108Q -- its most powerful quantum computer to date. Unfortunately, the company was forced to delay until at least the end of Q1, saying it needs more time to work out some kinks.
On the surface, a short delay doesn't sound like a big deal. But Rigetti stock -- and the quantum market at large -- is heavily affected by the perception that the technology's development is accelerating. This is a race to the finish line, and different companies are taking different approaches to solving the many issues that stand in the way of useful, commercially viable quantum computing -- any delays are enough to make investors question whether Rigetti will be the one to do it.
While Rigetti was dealing with its delay, its competitor, IonQ, announced it a $1.8 billion acquisition to build out its own manufacturing. Rigetti's vertical integration was one of its differentiators. Now, IonQ can keep its chip fabrication in-house, too.
January was a tough month for many tech stocks
Rigetti stock also faced some larger trends that it couldn't shake. Tech was hit after Microsoft revealed its continuing to spend enormous amounts of money on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. Investors were uncomfortable with the price tag. They're getting anxious to see a real return on that investment.
Image source: Getty Images.
Microsoft's Jan. 28 earnings report showed solid growth in revenue and earnings, beating Wall Street's targets on both counts. But the tech giant also said that it has already spent $72 billion in capital expenditures -- the lion's share of that on AI -- through the first half of its fiscal year. It spent $88 billion in for the entire year prior.
It is spending lavishly and has gone all out in pushing its AI-products on customers, yet only a tiny fraction of users have opted in -- and its cloud growth is inline or lower than previous years. That's not what investors like to see.
The bottom line
Rigetti is a speculative stock with an extreme valuation. If quantum computing makes major strides in the next few years, it might be justified, but I wouldn't count on it. I would caution most investors to stay away.
