Nuclear start-up Oklo (OKLO 4.00%) was one of the explosive stock market success stories of 2025 (though I probably shouldn't use the word "explosive" when talking about a company that makes nuclear reactors). Shares hit an all-time high in October shortly after Oklo broke ground on its first-ever Aurora Powerhouse small modular reactor (SMR) facility.
Since then, though, the market hasn't been kind to the company (or to nuclear start-ups in general). Oklo's share price has tumbled more than 60% from its October highs:
NYSE: OKLO
Key Data Points
Is this a sign of more bad news to come? Or at this price, is Oklo a buy now?
A long and bumpy road
Oklo is a nuclear start-up in its pre-commercial phase. That means the company hasn't begun commercial operations yet, and doesn't expect to begin them until late 2027 or early 2028. So metrics like quarterly revenue, profitability, and price-to-sales ratio don't reflect Oklo's long-term prospects. Investors will have to wait at least two years before such data will become meaningful.
Image source: Getty Images.
In the meantime, Oklo's share price movements are driven by news about the company, its rivals, the overall nuclear industry, and how analysts and major investors view the stock. For example, when Cathie Wood's Ark Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF sold a quarter of its position in Oklo in September, the stock price took an immediate hit. The fund has since repurchased more shares than it sold.
In other words, investors who buy shares now are signing up for at least two years of volatility and unexpected price swings before they even find out whether the company's technology will work as planned. Buying Oklo now is only for investors who can stomach that risk, and even they should only use money they can afford to lose.
The regulatory question
One of the biggest hurdles to building and operating a nuclear power plant in the U.S. is the amount of regulatory red tape that needs to be managed. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has to approve the design, construction, and operation of such a facility before it can ever be licensed for commercial power generation. The entire approval process takes years, even if no issues come up that need to be resolved. Until full approval is granted, any commercial nuclear project is essentially stuck in limbo.
Oklo is in the middle of its regulatory journey. It's proposing to design, build, and operate its reactors, then sell the power it generates to customers, so it's applying for a combined license from the NRC, which will encompass design, construction, and operational approval. Even though it hasn't received that combined approval yet from the NRC, its Aurora Powerhouse project in Idaho was accepted into the U.S. Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) last year. The RPP's goal is to speed up testing and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors like Oklo's.
It's unclear how participation in the RPP will affect the NRC's approval timeline and process. As a result, according to an Oklo spokesperson, the company has decided to focus on its RPP obligations as opposed to its NRC applications for now, and is hopeful that its RPP participation will help to streamline the ultimate NRC review process. There's no guarantee that this strategy will result in an expedited approval timeline for the Idaho Aurora Powerhouse from the NRC, but it certainly can't hurt.
The case for buying now
Given all the uncertainty inherent in this industry -- it's no surprise that swapping the first two letters in "nuclear" spells "unclear" -- most investors will want to wait for more clarity before buying shares of Oklo. That's perfectly valid. Speculative stocks like this certainly aren't for everyone.
That said, Oklo's stock price hasn't been this low since September, and is likely to immediately shoot higher again if any regulatory progress or other favorable news is announced. Buying in now sets investors up to take advantage of those gains, rather than buying in later for more certainty but smaller potential returns. If you think -- like me -- that Oklo is likely to eventually obtain NRC approval, it may well be worth taking a small position today. Just make sure you're aware of the risks.
