The excitement is waning for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles, otherwise known as electric air taxis. Numerous companies are developing and seeking to certify these battery-powered innovations for intra-urban flight worldwide, promising to revolutionize local travel once their networks are built.
Joby Aviation (JOBY 2.25%) is a leading eVTOL stock. It is spending billions of dollars to certify its electric air taxi, build partnerships in cities around the globe, and establish a manufacturing base in the United States. It trades at a market value of $10 billion and yet it generates close to zero revenue.
Along with other unprofitable, high-risk companies, Joby's stock has fallen in the last few months. Is now a good time to buy the dip on Joby Aviation stock, with shares down almost 50% from highs?
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Manufacturing expansion, raising funds
There is a lot of promise with electric air taxis. Using a quieter electric motor, electric air taxis should be able to operate where helicopters cannot, easily moving through cities and residential areas and transporting customers above land traffic. At least, that is the idea.
Getting a novel aviation idea to market is a lot harder than it sounds. Joby Aviation has needed to design its prototypes, build up manufacturing facilities, and work tirelessly for years on certification with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Regulators want to make sure these vehicles are safe before letting them loose onto the world.
Last month, Joby raised over $1 billion in convertible bonds and common stock, selling shares to investors at $11.35. This capital raise is another reason why Joby's stock has fallen, now sitting around $10.50 as of Feb. 8.
At the same time, Joby is committing to expanding its manufacturing capacity in the United States, aiming to build four vehicles a month by 2027. Hopefully, this will coincide with FAA approval for its electric air taxi, allowing it to begin selling taxis to customers or begin its own commercial operations.
NYSE: JOBY
Key Data Points
Time to buy the dip?
Even though Joby had close to $1 billion in cash on its balance sheet at the end of last quarter, the company rightfully feels the need to raise cash through debt and equity offerings because of its heavy (and increasing) cash burn. Free cash flow was negative $532 million over the last 12 months, and will only get worse as the company ramps up its initial manufacturing investments.
For years, the company will likely be operating at a heavy loss. This will lead to more shareholder dilution, which will be a headwind to long-term share price returns. What's more, the company's plan to manufacture four vehicles per month will not yield sizable sales. That is only 48 electric air taxis produced per year, or maybe over $100 million in annual revenue based on estimates for a few million in annual revenue from each air taxi operating in the network.
Compared to the current market cap of $10 billion, this doesn't seem like much. Minimal revenue potential, heavy cash burn, and a history of shareholder dilution should keep investors away from buying the dip on Joby Aviation stock.
