In the investment world, artificial intelligence (AI) has already gone from one of the great technological advancements of our time to a destructive force that will ruin industries. While that may seem like a complete reversal, when it comes to technology hype, this is not unusual.
In fact, tech research and advisory firm Gartner has devised a methodology describing this exact hype cycle. It consists of five parts:
- Innovation trigger: The early stages of a potential tech breakthrough, where generally there is no usable product, but the media begins talking about its potential.
- Peak of inflated expectations: The technology has now shown promise, and investor expectations are sky-high.
- Trough of disillusionment: Investors have started to question the true impact and potential of the technology and whether it will create value and drive profits.
- Slope of enlightenment: New commercial uses for the technology have been developed, and its impact becomes better understood.
- Plateau of productivity: The technology becomes mainstream, and what it is best used for becomes more obvious.
When it comes to AI, right now, we are near the trough of disillusionment part of the hype cycle. Peak excitement has waned, and investors have already begun questioning the spending surrounding the technology and which companies will become winners, if any. Let's look at several AI stocks I predict could become potential long-term winners, as we roll inevitably toward the trough of disillusionment.
Image source: Getty Images.
Meta Platforms
Perhaps no company has been punished for its AI spending plans more than Meta Platforms (META 2.52%). However, the company has shown better than anyone that it can apply AI to its core business to drive growth. It's incorporated AI into its recommendation algorithm to drive user engagement and into its ad tools to better target users. This has been leading to an increase in both ad impressions and ad prices. Having already shown how it will be an AI winner, Meta is a stock to own during this period of disillusionment.
NASDAQ: META
Key Data Points
Amazon
Amazon (AMZN 1.52%) is another company that has shown it can use AI to drive profits. It's incorporated AI throughout its logistics network to drive strong operating leverage. And like Meta, it's also using AI to drive growth in its ad business. Meanwhile, the company's cloud computing business revenue growth is accelerating, and it has a large investment in Anthropic. Amazon has proven it can be an AI winner, making it a stock to own.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
Microsoft
Between the fears of software disruption and compute overspending, Microsoft (MSFT 0.73%) stock has struggled. However, the company's software is ingrained in enterprises, and its AI assistant chatbots have been fueling growth. Meanwhile, Azure is set to continue to be its main growth driver, and the company owns 27% of OpenAI. OpenAI has also committed to spending $250 billion on Azure services, so it has a nice line of sight on growth.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
ServiceNow and Salesforce
The software-as-a-service (SaaS) space has been obliterated due to fears that these solutions will be replaced by AI, but companies whose platforms are deeply integrated into their customers' data and workflows are well-positioned in an AI age. ServiceNow (NOW 2.46%) looks like a prime AI winner as it positions itself as an AI orchestration platform, while Salesforce (CRM +2.65%) has positioned itself as an AI agent launch pad and main system of record following its acquisition of Informatica.
AMD
Despite the huge boom in AI infrastructure spending, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 3.46%) stock has fallen off its highs. The company is the No. 2 player in graphics processing units (GPUs), and a deal commitment and investment from OpenAI should help drive growth in the coming years. However, perhaps the better reason to own the stock while it's down is that the company is the leader in data center central processing units (CPUs). CPUs become more important in the age of agentic AI, making the stock an intriguing buy at current levels.
