No one would accuse Archer Aviation (ACHR 2.57%) of operating a boring business. Its small electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft are designed to take off and land like helicopters, fly like planes, and be as easy to book as a ride-hailing service.
If that sounds a little futuristic, that's because it is. Archer has yet to commercialize its business or generate revenue. Right off the bat, this makes it a speculative stock. Even so, 2026 could mark a potentially meaningful turning point for the company.
Source image: Getty Images.
Waiting to fly
What could drive the next big move for the stock price is the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issuing a type certificate for Archer's Midnight eVTOL aircraft, which it will require before it is allowed to carry commercial passengers. A type certificate confirms that the aircraft meets the FAA's required design and safety standards.
In anticipation of that eventual approval, in December 2025, the company shared that it had submitted multiple applications for proposed public-private partnerships with cities in California, New York, Texas, Georgia, and Florida. For California in particular, a tight approval timeline for certification is forming if the company is going to show off its capabilities as it hopes to. Archer has been named the official air taxi provider for the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.
The obvious catalyst that everyone is waiting for is FAA approval to carry passengers, and Archer's stock price has a recent history of taking off after the company receives positive news. For example, thanks in part to Archer's advancements in late September 2025 toward establishing air taxi services in Osaka, Japan, and a successful flight demonstration in California in October 2025, the stock price climbed 32% between Oct. 1 and Oct. 15.
This risk still looms
The significant risk for investors is that the FAA could delay on giving the Midnight its type certification. If Archer's schedule for beginning to carry commercial passengers gets pushed further into the future, that would add more pressure to its cash burn. While it closed the third quarter with $1.6 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments on its books, approval delays keep it burning cash and shake investor confidence.
NYSE: ACHR
Key Data Points
We won't get a look at Archer's results for 2025's fourth quarter and the full year until March 2, but for the first nine months of 2025, it reported a net loss of $429 million.
The stock began to sink precipitously after Archer went public in September 2021, and it has been on a turbulent ride ever since -- particularly in the past couple of years. After rising sharply through most of 2025, it has been heading downward since October, and that trend could continue if FAA certification does not arrive soon.
The Archer story will take time to play out
The global eVTOL aircraft market could grow from a little over $2 billion in 2025 to $170 billion by 2034, according to a forecast from Precedence Research. In that context, there is certainly upside potential for the companies pursuing that opportunity.
That said, anyone buying Archer stock needs to plan to hold it for several years at a minimum, even if they view it as a speculative investment warranting the smallest allocation in their portfolios. Both the company and the industry will need to mature before it can deliver the types of benefits that could come after commercialization and regulatory clarity take hold. Investors opening positions in Archer should understand the risks.
Any delays by the FAA could meaningfully impact the stock price in the short term, and investors will need to be prepared for volatility. However, FAA approval could turn the page to the next positive chapter in what will be a long story as this business evolves from a concept into a revenue-generating enterprise.
