2026 forecast
As of early 2026, Archer Aviation was in the pre-revenue phase of its development. Management, however, thinks that will change this year. Addressing the aircraft (dubbed Midnight) that are part of the launch edition program, Archer Aviation CEO Adam Goldstein said on the third-quarter 2025 conference call that the company expects to recognize payments as revenue for the program as it takes place.
While the company hasn't provided specific revenue guidance for 2026, it has indicated a $5 million price tag per aircraft. And the company hasn't forecast how many aircraft it expects to sell in 2026, but for the sake of this exercise, let's say it will sell 10 aircraft. In this case, Archer would post revenue of about $50 million for 2026.
There's no precedent for Archer Aviation stock with respect to a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio; however, using the P/S ratio for one of Archer's peers, Joby Aviation (JOBY +0.47%), can be useful. Currently, Joby trades at about 534 times trailing sales. If Archer Aviation reports fiscal 2026 revenue of $50 million, shares outstanding remain at the current level of 732.59 million, and it's valued at the same 534 P/S multiple, Archer stock would trade at approximately $36.50 per share.
Wall Street has a more bearish opinion of Archer stock. The consensus 12-month price target among analysts in early 2026 was $12.14.