In 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a landmark report on the surge in demand for critical minerals. The IEA warned that demand for minerals -- like cobalt, lithium, and copper -- would far surpass mining production and supply by 2030. It also emphasized the small number of countries that control these minerals -- like China -- and the risks that could arise should political instabilities lead to export restrictions.
Fast-forward five years, and the situation hasn't changed much. China still controls a vast quantity of critical minerals, while demand for them continues to grow. Now, in addition to electric vehicles and renewable energy, data center construction and battery storage expansion are part of the surge.
The U.S., for its part, still doesn't have strategic control over the critical mineral supply chain. That vulnerability, coupled with a looming supply gap, is why TMC The Metals Company (TMC 8.71%) has become such an important company to the U.S. government -- and why the metal stock, trading below $7, is a buy right now.
NASDAQ: TMC
Key Data Points
The bull case for buying TMC below $7
Picture four of the main ingredients of an electric car battery -- copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese -- embedded in a potato-sized rock. That is what TMC is trying to harvest from the Pacific Ocean.
Indeed, billions of tons of these poly metallic rocks (called nodules) are just sitting on the deep ocean floor. TMC plans to suck them up with a kind of robotic vacuum, process them into battery-grade metals, and then sell them to battery makers and other interested buyers.
Image source: TMC The Metals Company.
It's a process that metallurgy has never seen before, so there's currently no regulatory process on how to approve deep-mining projects. The governing body over the ocean -- the International Seabed Authority (ISA) -- has tried to finalize a rulebook for over a decade, but disagreements over potential environmental impact have resulted in continued delays.
But for TMC, that's only half the story. The other half involves the U.S., which is not a member of the ISA, and an obscure mining law that could allow TMC to pursue its deep-sea mining goals outside the ISA process.
Deep-sea mining approval
Last year, President Trump used an executive order to fast-track deep-sea mining approval. Under the new framework, companies can apply for an exploration license and a commercial recovery permit together. On March 9, TMC's consolidated application was the first to be approved under this new process. It's not dropping harvesters in the ocean yet, but it could start next year.
Of course, the ISA can fight it, and it's not clear yet what will happen if it does. If anything, though, this new streamlined process could pressure the ISA to finalize a rulebook of its own.
TMC, by its own estimates, owns the rights to mine a treasure chest of nodules worth about $24 billion. It's unclear how much it will cost to extract and process those minerals, as well as whether the market price will justify the effort. This means the stock is still speculative, and the path could get bumpy before it gets smooth.
The Trump administration, however, is serious about building its critical mineral supply chain. The urgency around that national goal makes a company like TMC seem like a future winner -- at least at today's single-digit price.
