The volatility of the war in Iran is the latest reminder of the impact oil and natural gas have on the global economy. As the demand for artificial intelligence (AI) drives up energy demand, it's opening the door to new energy sources, including nuclear power. To help address this growing demand, Oklo (OKLO +4.01%) is developing small, compact, modular nuclear plants called powerhouses, and broke ground on its first deployment at Idaho National Laboratory in 2025.
The Trump administration has put some weight behind the nuclear industry, with executive orders calling for massive investments in nuclear energy over the coming decades. Oklo stock got a huge boost in 2025, partly on the potential of AI energy needs. In 2026, AI enthusiasm eased and Oklo stock fell, now trading about 68% below its late 2025 all-time high.
Should investors buy Oklo while shares are trading under $55?
Image source: Getty Images.
Oklo is a company still in its infancy
Oklo is essentially trying to capture value across the nuclear supply chain. Its three primary businesses include:
- Building and operating powerhouses, selling the energy they generate.
- Recycling and selling the nuclear fuel powerhouses consume.
- Selling nuclear isotopes for applications in defense, industrial, and other industries.
The Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program has enabled Oklo to proceed with its Aurora powerhouse, which could pave the way for future projects under more traditional commercial licensing.
Oklo also recently landed a deal with Meta Platforms to build powerhouses in Ohio that will supply 1.2 gigawatts of electricity. Meta is prepaying for the energy, which provides Oklo -- essentially a pre-revenue business at this stage -- with much-needed funding.
Investors must know that nuclear projects take time to build and ramp up. The Aurora powerhouse is currently on pace to begin operations in 2028, while the Ohio project is likely to reach full capacity only in 2034.
NYSE: OKLO
Key Data Points
Why buying at these prices could be a mistake
Despite Oklo's steep decline, the stock still trades at a very lofty valuation for a business that hasn't yet delivered much. At $55 per share, Oklo carries a market cap of roughly $9.4 billion. Remember, Oklo's current projects are still years away from becoming fully operational. Analyst estimates have projected Oklo's revenue at $0.1 million this year and $3.3 million next year. Then, analysts see revenue building to $228 million in 2030 before surging to $1.1 billion in 2031.
Here's the problem with this. Investors are waiting several years for meaningful revenue, and that's before factoring in potential delays or setbacks along the way. If the company delivers $1.1 billion in 2031, that would still value the stock at about 8.5 times revenue estimates five years out.
Again, that's your baseline as someone buying the stock at these prices. Buying means counting on additional upside, such as future deals that change the company's trajectory. That's assuming a lot, which creates an assortment of risks. Only investors with very high risk tolerances should find this appealing. Most are better off passing on Oklo for now.
