Today's Highlights
📌 Top story -- scroll down for more updates
Chip Stocks Rise as Intel Gains 10%
4:35 pm — INTC +7.08% today
Shares of Intel (INTC +0.00%) jumped about 7% midday as easing geopolitical fears and AI optimism lifted semiconductor stocks. Reports that the Trump administration may pursue a ceasefire with Iran helped calm markets after oil-driven recession worries. At the same time, Arm Holding’s (ARM +2.63%) forecast for $15 billion in AI chip sales reinforced demand expectations across the sector, lifting peers like Intel despite direct competition.
- Macro Mood Swing: Markets are trading headlines—any shift in Iran ceasefire prospects could quickly reverse today’s gains.
- AI Halo Effect: Arm’s outlook boosts sentiment, but Intel still needs to prove its own AI execution to sustain momentum.
Closing Bell
4:07 pm
Stocks climbed Wednesday as oil prices fell on tentative signs of U.S.-Iran negotiations, even as both sides remain far apart. The Dow rose 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also advanced. Crude slid more than 2%, easing inflation pressure and boosting risk appetite. Chip names including Nvidia (NVDA +1.67%), AMD (AMD +0.05%), and Intel (INTC +0.00%) led gains, while financials and industrials followed.
- Peace talk mirage? Iran rejected a U.S. proposal and outlined its own demands, including control over the Strait of Hormuz—highlighting how fragile any deal remains.
- Oil still the swing factor: Markets are trading off every headline; crude’s drop is driving equities higher, but renewed escalation could quickly reverse the move.
AST Pops on Space Hype Wave
3:38 pm — ASTS +9.83%
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 5.95%) jumped about 12% as space stocks rallied on two catalysts: reports that SpaceX may pursue a record IPO and NASA’s $20 billion plan to build a moon base by 2032. Investors appear to be extrapolating sector momentum to AST’s satellite network ambitions, even though its core business—direct-to-cell connectivity on Earth—has limited near-term ties to lunar infrastructure. Meanwhile, NASA has already awarded its key Earth-to-moon communications contract, leaving AST’s role in space exploration speculative.
- Rising tide, loose linkage: Sector enthusiasm is lifting AST alongside peers, but the connection to near-term revenue remains indirect.
- Contracts already spoken for: Intuitive Machines (LUNR +1.21%) holds a major lunar communications award, narrowing AST’s immediate opportunity beyond Earth.
Meta Aims for 5x Growth by 2031
3:11 pm — META +0.29%
Meta Platforms (META +1.81%) is tying executive pay to an aggressive goal: reaching a $9 trillion market cap by 2031, roughly 5x its current value. The new stock option plan could pay top leaders hundreds of millions if achieved, underscoring how central AI-driven growth has become to the company’s strategy. The move comes as stock-based compensation surged, consuming about 96% of free cash flow in 2025, with billions spent on AI talent and buybacks to offset dilution.
- All-in on scale: Executives only fully benefit if Meta delivers massive shareholder gains, aligning incentives with a rapid expansion thesis.
- Cost of the AI race: Heavy equity compensation and buybacks highlight how expensive competing for talent—and growth—has become.
Paysign's Up on Sales Strength
2:53 pm — PAYS +35.94%
Paysign (PAYS +7.88%) surged roughly 35% after reporting Q4 results that topped revenue expectations and reinforced a strong 2026 outlook. Sales rose 26% year over year to $22.76 million, beating estimates, while earnings met expectations. Management guided for full-year revenue of $106.5 million to $110.5 million, implying roughly 30%+ growth, alongside sharply higher net income. The rally suggests investors are focusing on accelerating growth and margin expansion, even as the stock had been flat on the year prior to the report.
- Growth engine revving: Pharma and plasma segments are both contributing to momentum, supporting a path to sustained 30%+ top-line growth.
- Margins join the story: Net income is expected to roughly double in 2026, signaling operating leverage—not just revenue growth—is driving the thesis.
What's Going on at KB Home?
2:36 pm — KBH -2.04%
By Seth Jayson
Team Rule Breakers
KB Home (KBH +4.45%) just reported its Q1 results, and it was a rough one — revenue down 23% year over year to $1.08 billion, earnings at $0.52 a share when the Street was looking for closer to $0.54–$0.56, and the stock dropped roughly 7% on the news. The company also cut its full-year revenue guidance. None of that is fun to read. But there’s a new CEO in place, the company is intentionally shifting back toward its built-to-order model (which tends to carry better margins), community count is at a multi-year high, and net orders are actually growing year over year. This quarter looks more like a transition period getting digested in real time than a sign the wheels are coming off… except that we know there’s no structural fix to housing market issues. Lower interest rates only help marginally. Inflation in labor, materials, and goods (ie, trade war on top of the COVID-era supply chain mess), alongside overly large homes, means they’re just unaffordable to too many.
Chewy Is a Pet Parent's Best Friend
1:15 pm — CHWY +14.5%
By Alicia Alfiere
Team Rule Breakers
When our Rule Breakers team re-recommended Chewy (CHWY +2.08%) a few years ago, user counts weren't growing. We said it didn't matter, because the company had valuable customer relationships that were deepening. And as a result, we believed that the number of customers didn't have to grow as long as customer spending (also known as net sales per customer, or NSPAC) continued to expand.
Fast forward to today's earnings release, and Chewy's customer relationships and spending have continued to grow. In fiscal 2025, NSPAC grew 2.2% to total $591. Not only that -- Chewy's customer counts are expanding as well, rising 4% year-over-year in 2025. Growing customer counts, increased spend per customer, and continued growth in autoship sales fueled fiscal 2025's net sales growth of 6.2% year over year. By the way -- that comparison includes an extra week in fiscal 2024 and when that's adjusted for, net sales grew 8.3%. Chewy was also profitable and generated free cash flow in 2025.
On top of this performance, the company guided for continued sales growth of roughly 8% to 9% next year. The market reacted strongly to this forecast, with shares up 14% so far today.
On Holding's Maguire Adds Operational Rigor
1:05 pm — ONON -10.3%
By Sanmeet Deo
Team Rule Breakers
I’m frankly surprised that On Holdings (ONON +4.26%) stock is sliding so much today, but the market tends to dislike co-CEOs in general (though Netflix (NFLX 9.71%) is doing a great job) and leadership transitions always spook the markets. However, it shouldn’t be construed as weakness in the business fundamentals. I agree with what Andy Cross wrote for Top of the Morning that splitting the CEO and CFO role is vital. Also, Scott Maguire is an operations guy and he will be president and COO, potentially the next full-time CEO? While the co-CEOs are founders, I do like that they will continue the innovative push (something very much needed in this space, see: Lululemon (LULU +2.68%)) balanced with the operational rigor of Maguire. We’ll hear more about this at their next earnings call and planned investor day. I would continue holding the stock and buy more if it dips.
70-Cent Energy Drinks Hit Costco
12:20 pm — CELH -2.7%
Celsius Holdings (CELH +1.15%) shares slid 7% after Costco (COST +1.28%) debuted a private-label Kirkland energy drink priced at just $0.70 per can. Despite the undercutting, Celsius remains insulated by its massive distribution deal with PepsiCo (PEP 0.46%), ensuring its reach extends far beyond the 900-store warehouse footprint to Target (TGT +3.11%) and Walmart (WMT +2.15%). While the Kirkland alternative offers value, Celsius’s recent acquisitions of Alani and Rockstar, combined with a record-breaking sales year, provide a diversified moat that private labels rarely breach. Market analysts suggest the sell-off may be an overreaction, as Costco's offering lacks the brand lifestyle and convenience-store presence that fuel the "Celsius empire."
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The Distribution Fortress: Celsius leverages Pepsi’s logistics to dominate shelf space in gas stations and gyms, areas where a membership-only warehouse brand simply cannot compete for impulse buys.
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Innovation Pipeline Advantage: Unlike a static private label, Celsius is prepping high-margin launches like protein-based beverages to maintain its grip on the "fit-focused" consumer demographic.
Meta Cuts Hundreds Across Facebook, Reality Labs
11:05 am — META +0.8%
Meta Platforms (META +1.81%) confirmed a fresh round of layoffs Wednesday, cutting several hundred positions across Facebook, recruiting, and its embattled Reality Labs division. The move signals a continued "year of efficiency" as CEO Mark Zuckerberg reallocates billions toward artificial intelligence to counter Alphabet (GOOG +2.00%) and OpenAI. While some staff may relocate for new roles, the hardware segment — responsible for Quest headsets — remains under heavy pressure following a January cull that eliminated 10% of its workforce. For investors, these surgical cuts suggest Meta is prioritizing high-growth AI infrastructure over long-dated metaverse experiments to protect its premium valuation.
- The Silicon Valley Talent Pivot: Meta is aggressively hollowing out traditional operations and global sales to bankroll the specialized engineering talent required to win the generative AI arms race.
- Hardware Consolidation Risks: By shuttering VR studios and reducing Horizon Worlds staff, the company is narrowing its metaverse focus, potentially making it more reliant on third-party developers for its ecosystem.
Will Fortnite Woes Sink Disney's Digital Future?
10:20 am — DIS -0.7%
Walt Disney Co. (DIS +2.26%) CEO Josh D’Amaro’s first week is defined by tech friction after a $1 billion partnership with OpenAI collapsed. The AI startup shuttered its Sora video app, abruptly ending a three-year plan to populate Disney+ with AI-generated franchise content. Simultaneously, Epic Games — the "Fortnite" creator in which Disney holds a $1.5 billion stake — announced 1,000 layoffs following poor engagement with new game versions. Despite these setbacks to D’Amaro’s "connected" digital vision, the company is already pivoting toward rivals like Alphabet (GOOG +2.00%) to salvage its AI monetization strategy.
- The Search for a Safety Net: Analysts suggest Disney must move quickly to secure a new generative video partner to protect its youth-focused franchise pipeline and justify its massive streaming overhead.
- Gaming Portfolio Pressure: The struggles at Epic Games cast doubt on the immediate ROI of Disney’s "digital universe," forcing a potential re-evaluation of how the House of Mouse integrates interactive media into its core earnings.
NYSE: DIS
Key Data Points
Top of the Morning
10:15 am — ONON -8.6%
By Andy Cross
Motley Fool CIO
Swiss sneaker makers On Holdings (ONON +4.26%) announced today that its co-founders will step in as co-CEOss in May. Longtime executive, CEO/CFO Martin Hoffman, will step aside but stay on as an advisor through 2027. Frank Sluis joins as new CFO as part of the transition. And On will promote Scott Maguire to President and COO to focus on operations like logistics, technology, and marketing -- critical areas to define On's future success.
This won't be the first time On has implemented a co-CEO structure. Just about a year ago, the company moved to the Hoffmann-single-CEO role when Marc Mauer stepped down as co-CEO after 12 years in that position. But Hoffmann kept the CFO role.
Opening Bell
9:35 am -- NVDA +1.7%, AMD +5.1%, INTC +3.9%
The Dow jumped 548 points Wednesday following reports of a 15-point U.S. peace plan delivered to Tehran. The news sent West Texas Intermediate crude sliding 4% to $88, providing a reprieve for equity multiples. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq tracked higher as Treasury yields retreated. Despite the optimism, Iranian state media’s rejection of ceasefire efforts and the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division deployment kept volatility high. Tech leaders like Nvidia (NVDA +1.67%), AMD (AMD +0.05%), and Intel (INTC +0.00%) led gains as investors bet on de-escalating inflationary pressures.
Market indexes
Leadership Shakeup at On as Growth Slows
9:15 am — ONON -5.2% in pre-market trading
On Holding (ONON +4.26%) is returning to its roots, appointing co-founders David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti as co-CEOs effective May 1. The leadership pivot follows a disappointing sales forecast earlier this month that sent shares tumbling, as the Swiss brand struggles with a projected slowdown in growth. Outgoing CEO Martin Hoffmann, who steered the company through its 2021 IPO, leaves as the firm fights to maintain its "premium play" status against legacy titans like Nike (NKE +0.72%) and Adidas (ADDYY +2.61%). Investors are wary; shares fell 4% in premarket trading as the market weighs whether this founder-led transition can preserve the innovative edge that originally stole market share from the industry's old guard.
- Revolving Door at the Top: The executive shuffle extends beyond the CEO suite, with a new CFO and COO also slated to take the reins in May as part of a total operational reset.
- The Premium Gamble: By being increasingly selective with product franchises, the new co-CEOs are doubling down on high-margin exclusivity even as global consumer spending on athletic apparel begins to soften.
Chewy Soars as Record FCF Hits $232 Million
8:45 am -- CHWY +10.23% in pre-market trading
Chewy (CHWY +2.08%) achieved growth in active customers and cash flow but posted lower GAAP earnings year over year. Revenue increased slightly to $3.26 billion while adjusted EBITDA rose 30.4% in the quarter. Management expects continued profitable growth and margin expansion in fiscal 2026, though no specific guidance was provided.
NYSE: CHWY
Key Data Points
Merck's $6.7B Terns Deal Targets 2028 Patent Risk
8:00 am -- MRK +0.42%, TERN +5.34% in pre-market trading
Merck (MRK +3.08%) announced Wednesday a definitive agreement to acquire clinical-stage biotech Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN 0.08%) for $6.7 billion. The all-cash deal, priced at $53 per share, aims to secure Terns' lead candidate, TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR-ABL inhibitor for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Merck CEO Rob Davis is moving aggressively to diversify the company's oncology portfolio as its mega-blockbuster Keytruda--which generated $31.7 billion in 2025 (nearly half of total revenue)--approaches its 2028 U.S. patent expiration. The transaction is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, resulting in a one-time charge of approximately $5.8 billion.
- Clinical Differentiation: TERN-701 is currently in the CARDINAL Phase 1/2 trial, with data presented in late 2025 showing a 75% molecular response rate. Merck believes the drug could be "best-in-disease," offering better safety and convenience (no food restrictions) compared to Novartis's (NVS +1.50%) rival therapy, Scemblix.
- Structural Reorg: The acquisition follows Merck's February 2026 decision to split its "Human Health" business into two stand-alone units: Oncology (led by Jannie Oosthuizen) and Specialty, Pharma & Infectious Diseases (led by Sanofi veteran Brian Foard). This restructuring is designed to streamline the launch of over 20 anticipated "blockbuster" growth drivers by 2030.
NYSE: MRK
Key Data Points
This Morning's Breakfast News
7:30 am -- BRZE +22.64% in pre-market trading
Braze (BRZE 0.48%) popped 20% overnight, after the Rule Breakers recommendation beat fourth-quarter revenue expectations with a 28% jump year over year (YoY) to $205 million. Operating income came in 84% higher than last year's comparable quarter, as the company's communications tools attracted 13.6% more net customers.
- "Early in fiscal 2027, we passed $800 million in annual recurring revenue": CEO William Magnuson spoke of organic revenue growing for the third straight quarter, as remaining performance obligations broke through the trillion-dollar level.
- 2027 revenue between $884 million and $889 million: Management expects 20% revenue growth in fiscal 2027, starting with around $205 million in the first quarter. Investors should watch Braze's dollar-based net retention rate, which declined YoY.
ICYMI: Tuesday's Scoreboard
7:00 am -- NUE unchanged in pre-market trading
Nucor (NUE +2.10%) was the subject of the latest Scoreboard video.
Abel's First Deal Is a Perfect Capital Fit
6:15 am -- BRKB +0.46% in pre-market trading
By Buck Hartzell
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB 0.11%) just inked a 10-year strategic partnership with Tokio Marine. Berkshire subsidiary National Indemnity will invest $1.8 billion to purchase 2.49% of Tokio Marine Holdings. They can increase their ownership up to 9.9% of Tokio's shares through open market purchases.
Tokio has a proven acquisition track record and as everyone knows, Berkshire has plenty of capital. This seems like a good match and it's the first deal under Greg Abel. It's nice to see Mr. Abel start to put some of that cash hoard to work!
NYSE: BRKB
Key Data Points
Apple Reboots Siri as a Conversational AI App
6:00 am -- AAPL +0.62% in pre-market trading
As it works to restructure its AI offerings, Apple (AAPL +2.65%) is testing a stand-alone app version of its Siri AI assistant – set to be launched at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June, reports Bloomberg.
- "Ask Siri" button coming to iOS 27?: Delayed from last year, Apple promised the new Siri would launch in 2026, and it's likely to integrate across Mac and iPhone products – with access to personal data, including messages and emails.
- AI chatbot format: The new Siri is expected to offer users a conversational, chat-like, interface using voice and text – to counteract the growing dominance of tools like ChatGPT.
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
Arm Launches First-Ever Chip in Historic Pivot
5:30 am -- ARM +12.85% in pre-market trading
Arm Holdings (ARM +2.63%) shattered its 35-year business model Tuesday, transitioning from a pure-play intellectual property licensor to a direct chip manufacturer. At its "Arm Everywhere" event in San Francisco, CEO Rene Haas unveiled the Arm AGI CPU, the company's first-ever physical silicon product designed specifically for "agentic" AI infrastructure. Meta Platforms (META +1.81%) is the lead development partner and flagship customer, with OpenAI, Cloudflare, and SAP also signed on as early adopters. While the move puts Arm in direct competition with its own licensees--including Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft--investors cheered the shift. After-hours, the stock jumped 6% as Haas projected the new silicon business would drive total annual revenue to $25 billion within five years, a five-fold increase from current levels.
- The 136-Core Powerhouse: Manufactured on TSMC's 3nm process, the AGI CPU features up to 136 Neoverse V3 cores and is designed to deliver 2x the performance-per-watt of traditional x86 racks, potentially saving data center operators billions in energy costs.
- Economic Pivot: By selling physical chips rather than just blueprints, Arm can capture up to $500 in gross profit per unit compared to the roughly $10 to $100 it typically earns in royalties, a massive expansion of its capture-of-value in the AI stack.
NASDAQ: ARM
Key Data Points
Before the Opening Bell
5:15 am
Stock futures are climbing Wednesday morning as global markets react to a potential diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. Reports from the AP and New York Times indicate the Trump administration has delivered a 15-point peace plan to Tehran via Pakistani intermediaries, aiming for a 30-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While Iran has publicly downplayed claims of "direct talks," the prospect of an off-ramp has triggered a massive liquidation of the "war premium" in energy markets. Brent crude plummeted nearly 6% to trade below $95 per barrel, providing a significant relief valve for a market previously bracing for $150 oil and a prolonged inflationary shock.
- The 15-Point Framework: The proposal reportedly includes strict curbs on uranium enrichment and missile development in exchange for full sanctions relief and U.S. assistance in developing a civilian nuclear energy program at Bushehr.
- Economic Data Pivot: Beyond geopolitics, traders are eyeing February's import and export price figures due later today. With fuel import prices already trending lower in January, any further cooling in these metrics could bolster the case for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy later this spring.
