Intel (INTC 1.51%) has been one of the biggest comeback stories on Wall Street in recent memory. Over the past 12 months, the stock surged more than 260%. The turnaround is fueled by new leadership and the U.S. government taking a nearly 10% stake in the company.
Despite the huge rally, analysts are sharply divided on Intel for one major reason: Intel's foundry business looks both promising and risky.
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Key Data Points
The bull case is simple. Intel Foundry will be a direct rival to leading chip manufacturers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Samsung. It's a bold strategy to reduce the West's reliance on the two most dominant Asian chip producers. The U.S. government already backs Intel, but it may also have Nvidia and Apple as other powerful partners.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The bear case is more skeptical. The foundry business burns through far too much cash and isn't adding new customers fast enough. The bearish analysts argue that Nvidia and the government using Intel's foundry for chip production simply isn't enough to sustain the incredible capital the business requires.
Intel Foundry brought in $17.8 billion in revenue in 2025 but incurred $28.1 billion in costs. The foundry's operating loss did decrease from 2024, but it is still a long way from profitability.
The chips will fall where they may
The future of Intel depends largely on who you ask. If the foundry business is successful and directly competes with TSMC and Samsung, Intel's 260% rise is just the beginning of its impressive comeback story. If the company is unable to diversify its customer base and control costs, though, it could spell real trouble for Intel in the long run.
