The S&P 500 (^GSPC +1.18%) just hit another all-time high on enthusiasm around a potential resolution to the Iran war. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +1.60%) continues to do the same and is now a $925 billion behemoth.
But investing in the S&P 500 right now isn't a slam-dunk choice. Past de-escalations to the Iran conflict have proven to be tentative and nondurable. Inflation has risen significantly. The labor market has slowed considerably. In terms of valuations, U.S. stocks still trade well above their long-term average.
But there are also good reasons to think that the rally isn't finished yet.
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Earnings growth will continue to be the driver
While these potential economic concerns are important and shouldn't be dismissed, long-term equity market performance is typically driven by corporate earnings. As long as earnings continue to grow, U.S. stocks should have the support that can keep pushing share prices higher.
NYSEMKT: VOO
Key Data Points
That's where we are now. The annualized earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is expected to be 27.1% in Q1 2026. That would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year double-digit growth and the best year-over-year growth rate since 2021. It's tough to see stock prices falling too far when earnings are growing at that kind of clip.
The case for investing $1,000 in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF right now is still strong. There are always concerns that investors should be aware of and consider. But the growth in corporate earnings is enough to outweigh them for the time being.
