For years, XRP (XRP -0.29%) has been touted as an explosive, high-upside cryptocurrency. But that certainly has not been the case in 2026. XRP is down 40% year to date and is dangerously close to falling through the $1 price level.
So, where will XRP be in three years? Will it finally fulfill its longtime promise, or will it continue to crater in value? Here are two possible scenarios.
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The bull-case scenario for XRP
Let's start with the bullish scenario for XRP. In this scenario, the price of XRP soars to $10 or higher. According to Standard Chartered, XRP could hit a price of $12.50 by the end of 2028.
These price gains are based primarily on the rapidly growing pace of institutional adoption, as XRP becomes the primary focal point of an end-to-end blockchain-based payment system. XRP already plays a role in cross-border money transfers. If all goes according to plan, XRP will play an even bigger role within the traditional financial system.
Ripple, the company behind the XRP token, has already spent more than $3 billion on blockchain- and crypto-related acquisitions to make that happen. And Ripple has plenty to show for its efforts: The company is now valued at $50 billion. By way of comparison, that's more than Coinbase Global (COIN -2.28%), which has a market cap of $40 billion.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
The bear-case scenario for XRP
There's just one problem with this bull-case scenario, however. It completely ignores the growing importance of stablecoins, which are digital currencies pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar. Often, these stablecoins can play the same role as XRP, thereby limiting its utility.
In this bear-case scenario, XRP becomes nothing more than a bridge currency, a settlement bridge, or a routing asset. It's how you get from point A to point B, and that's all. It is not a unit of account or a store of value. As soon as the XRP token fulfills its role, it goes back into circulation.
That could help to explain why Ripple launched a stablecoin of its own, known as Ripple USD (RLUSD +0.00%), in December 2024. In just 18 months, Ripple USD has skyrocketed to a market cap of $1.7 billion and now ranks among the top stablecoins in the world.
XRP vs. Ripple
Over the next three years, I fully expect Ripple's blockchain-based payment system to gain additional traction with banks and financial institutions. As a result, Ripple's valuation will likely grow over time. Ripple already ranks as a top initial public offering (IPO) candidate, and there's at least an outside possibility that the company could go public at some point.
However, I don't expect XRP to go along for the ride. Right now, all the value is flowing to Ripple, and none is flowing to XRP. That's likely to continue as long as stablecoins remain popular.
So, don't believe the hype about XRP soaring in price to $10 or higher. If you're expecting XRP to make you a crypto millionaire, it's time to rethink your assumptions about the future of blockchain-based payments.
