Viking Therapeutics (VKTX +1.95%) has seen its stock stumble in recent times -- for example, it's slipped over the past year. But over five years, shares of the biotech company have climbed more than 300%. This is amid excitement about the company's potential in a market that's on track to reach nearly $100 billion in just a few years. I'm talking about the weight loss drug market.
Viking hasn't yet commercialized a drug, but it has a promising candidate in late-stage trials, so it may be very close to the finish line in this valuable market. All of this means the biotech, which specializes in developing candidates for metabolic and endocrine disease, might generate revenue -- and at significant levels -- in just a few years.
Though investors haven't rushed into the stock in recent months, this could soon change. Viking has catalysts just ahead: The company expects to report data from a maintenance dosing study of its weight loss drug candidate in the third quarter, and it aims to launch a phase 3 trial for the oral version of its candidate in the fourth quarter.
Considering this, is Viking stock going to $100? Let's find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
Blockbuster weight loss drugs
We'll start with some details about Viking's lead candidate, VK2735. This is an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, much like the popular drugs sold by market leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. These drugs act on hormonal pathways involved in digestion, and as a result, they help control appetite and blood sugar levels. The Lilly and Novo drugs have become blockbusters, and demand has been consistently high for these products -- this is thanks to their efficacy, safety, and ease of use.
Though these pharma giants dominate the space, as mentioned, it is a high-growth market, so there is room for others to enter. And even if a company such as Viking doesn't take leadership -- and I wouldn't expect it to unseat a massive pharma company like Lilly or Novo -- it still could bring in blockbuster revenue. That could be quite a huge step for a young biotech.
And Viking does offer its own twist, differentiating itself from current GLP-1 drugs. At the moment, Lilly offers a dual GLP-1/GIP drug in injectable format and a GLP-1 drug in oral format. Novo's obesity drugs are GLP-1s. (Dual GLP-1/GIP drugs interact with two hormonal pathways, while GLP-1s interact with only one hormonal pathway.)
Injectable and oral formulations
Viking is developing VK2735 in both injectable and oral formats. So, if approved, it would be the first dual GLP-1/GIP drug available in oral format -- and the first dual available in both injectable and oral formats. One big advantage of this is that patients can shift from one formulation to the other -- for example, starting with the oral treatment and then using the injectable for maintenance once they've reached their desired weight.
NASDAQ: VKTX
Key Data Points
The phase 3 trial for Viking's injectable is ongoing, and as mentioned, the phase 3 study for the oral formulation is set to begin later this year. We also should see data from its maintenance dosing trial in the months to come. These events could represent catalysts for the stock, which has been known to react to news. When Viking initially announced phase 2 data for VK2735 a couple of years ago, the stock soared more than 100% in one trading session.
So now, let's return to our question: Is Viking heading to $100? It reached a high of more than $94 when it announced phase 2 data in February of 2024. The stock has since given back much of that gain, and it trades today for about $27. But the average Wall Street estimate calls for it to reach more than $92 within the coming 12 months, recovering much of that territory.
The path to $100 represents a jump of more than 200%. I don't see that happening overnight like Viking's massive gain in February of 2024. But a few updates or general good news in the obesity drug market could help it along the way -- so Viking could indeed be heading to $100 in the quarters to come.
