Lucid Group (LCID +8.82%) stock has plummeted 91% over the past three years amid executive leadership changes, rising costs, slowing demand for electric vehicles, and production hurdles.
And there's no guarantee the next three years will be any better.
Here are some of the opportunities and challenges facing Lucid over the next three years, and why it's probably best to avoid Lucid stock for now.
Image source: Getty Images.
Lucid will likely be selling less-expensive EVs
One of Lucid's biggest challenges and opportunities will be selling a smaller, cheaper vehicle. The company has already debuted the Earth and Cosmos crossovers, which have starting prices of under $50,000, according to Lucid. Sales of the vehicles aren't expected to begin until late this year or sometime in 2027, with the Cosmos launching first.
Lucid's goal is to appeal to more buyers, and those with smaller budgets. The lowest-priced Lucid Air sedan starts around $71,000, so the new models will be a big departure from its current luxury models. By offering a sub-$50,000 crossover, Lucid will have a vehicle priced close to the average new car.
If it succeeds, it could help solidify Lucid as an EV automaker for the masses, and not just a luxury carmaker.
Vehicle production could remain rocky
Lucid has faced its fair share of production hiccups, the most recent of which came from issues with its seat supplier for its Gravity SUV.
In May, Lucid said it had "elevated inventory" levels it still needs to sell and that it was suspending its 2026 production guidance. The company had previously estimated it would produce between 25,000 and 27,000 vehicles this year.
That suspension came from the company's new CEO, Silvio Napoli, an automotive industry outsider who previously ran an elevator and escalator manufacturing company. Napoli is the third CEO for Lucid over the past few years.
Napoli will review the company's production and will issue updated guidance when the company reports its second-quarter results on Aug. 4. He's already made some controversial moves, laying off 18% of Lucid's employees and overhauling the executive suite with a new CFO, CTO, and other leadership positions.
New management could help Lucid achieve the operational efficiency it needs to be a successful automaker, but the next few years will be crucial. So far, Napoli has a long road ahead of him to get the company producing vehicles efficiently.
NASDAQ: LCID
Key Data Points
Lucid's financial picture will still be a big question
Lucid's first-quarter financial results showed just how much the company needs to improve. Its sales of nearly $283 million were far below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $440 million.
The company's loss per share of $3.46 was also a disappointment, well under the analysts' consensus estimate of $2.64 per share.
But it's not just that Lucid is missing Wall Street's expectations. The company has had to take several cash infusions from its largest investor, the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund (PIF), over the years to keep the lights on. The PIF owns an estimated 57% of the company and has already invested billions of dollars, including a $550 million investment earlier this year.
Lucid has $4.7 billion in liquidity right now, so it's not as if the company will shut down tomorrow. But its ongoing need for more capital -- which sometimes causes it to issue new shares and dilute existing shareholder value -- is a recurring theme for the company.
Unless Lucid's new vehicles start selling like hotcakes and its new CEO gets the company's production line humming, the next few years could look like the past three years.
