Sandisk (SNDK 3.74%) has been, by far, the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. The flash memory maker has benefited from the ever-growing demand for memory and storage from AI data centers. The deep imbalance between supply and demand has allowed the company to boost its prices to a remarkable degree, and buyers keep snapping up its products.
And memory prices could surge even higher: Morningstar analyst William Kerwin expects to see that they rose by more than 100% overall in Sandisk's just-ended fiscal 2026, and predicts a nearly 100% rise from there in its fiscal 2027.
There's no doubt that's incredibly good for Sandisk's business. But the stock market is always forward-looking. Investors need to ask whether that predicted growth is already priced into the stock and whether the company can exceed expectations.
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Is Sandisk stock a buy right now?
The memory market has a history of being extremely cyclical. When memory is in short supply, prices soar, and producers commit to building new fabrication facilities to meet demand. But as those fabs come online, the market tends to get hit with a glut of supply, and memory prices plunge. In just a few years, companies can go from extremely profitable, like Sandisk is today, to making pennies per share or even losing money.
Sandisk hasn't been trading as a stand-alone company for long -- it was spun off from Western Digital in February 2025 -- so there's not a lot of history to go on. But after that spinoff, Sandisk released some data that gave investors a good look at what a down cycle can look like for the company. It went from a $1 billion net profit in fiscal 2022 to a $2 billion net loss in fiscal 2023. It was still a loss-making operation in fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2025. It wasn't until the current fiscal year that Sandisk began to see demand spike and prices shoot higher, resulting in a strong gross margin and total profits.
When the current cycle collapses, Sandisk could sink back toward unprofitable territory. The company is investing significant amounts in its own operations and its joint venture with Kioxia. It also spends a steady amount -- over $1 billion per year -- on research and development. Those costs are unlikely to change even when revenue starts declining. They didn't in 2023 or 2024.
NASDAQ: SNDK
Key Data Points
Despite management's efforts to mitigate downside risk by signing long-term contracts with large buyers of its memory products, it could face significant pressure on profits as the supply-and-demand imbalance evens out. The long-term trend is for Sandisk to charge less per terabyte of memory over time. So, demand for storage will have to significantly outpace price declines over time, given the company's additional overhead and production costs.
Sandisk stock has sold off by more than 25% from its peak amid a broader semiconductor stock decline. Despite the lower price per share, it still looks fairly expensive for a cyclical stock near the peak of its earnings cycle. Despite the potential for memory prices to double again in the coming year, investors need to consider what comes when the supply-and-demand equilibrium swings back in the other direction. Indeed, Wall Street's estimates for Micron's fiscal 2028 earnings are currently below those for fiscal 2027. And 2029 could see a huge revenue collapse. At the current price, the stock looks far too expensive to take that long-term risk.
