Walmart (WMT +2.15%) has quietly become one of the market's strongest large-cap performers over the past few years, rewarding investors who had long underestimated it. Lately, though, the run has cooled. Yet even after slipping from a 52-week high near $135 to about $114 as of this writing, the stock still fetches about 40 times earnings -- a growth stock multiple for a retailer that rings up most of its sales on low-margin groceries.
That gap is the whole question for anyone buying today. Can a company this enormous grow into a price like that over the next five years? The answer sits in a surprisingly small corner of the business.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The engines behind the premium
On the surface, Walmart's results read like a big, dependable retailer's. In its fiscal first quarter of 2027 (the period ended April 30, 2026), total revenue rose 7.3% to $177.8 billion. Comparable sales in the U.S., excluding fuel, grew 4.1% -- healthy, but a notch below the 4.5% it posted a year earlier. Growth like that doesn't explain such a premium.
The explanation sits beneath the top line. Walmart's fastest-growing businesses happen to be its highest-margin, and they are finally big enough to matter. In the U.S., its Walmart Connect ad platform grew 44%, part of a broad jump in higher-margin advertising across the company. Membership fee income climbed 17.4% globally. And e-commerce sales rose 26%, now about 23% of net sales.
NASDAQ: WMT
Key Data Points
Two things make that mix powerful. These lines carry far fatter margins than selling packaged food, so a growing share of Walmart's profit now comes from advertising, memberships, and marketplace fees rather than the shelves. And its online business, long a drag the company absorbed just to stay competitive, is finally reaching the point where better e-commerce economics help profits instead of hurting them.
"Our teams are ... growing higher-margin commerce solutions," CEO John Furner said in the company's first-quarter earnings release, describing a push he tied to stronger returns.
Automation feeds the same goal, with Walmart steering more of its capital expenditures into automated distribution and fulfillment that lower the cost of each online order.
Where the stock could be in 2031
Here is what today's price is really asking. At about 40 times earnings, the market is valuing Walmart less like a retailer and more like a durable and fast-growing compounder -- and management's own outlook shows why that's a stretch. For the full year, Walmart reiterated guidance for non-GAAP (adjusted) operating income to grow 6% to 8% and adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 to $2.85, up only about 6% from the prior year. Mid-single-digit profit growth rarely earns a valuation multiple in the 40s.
The five-year outcome comes down to two things: how fast earnings grow, and what multiple investors keep paying. Assume Walmart compounds earnings at 8% to 10% a year, a bit above current guidance and generous to the high-margin businesses. Hold the price-to-earnings ratio at 40, and the stock could approach $175. Let the premium fade toward a still-rich 30 times, and the same earnings support a price closer to $130. Push the multiple toward the broader market's, and five years of steady execution could leave the shares near where they trade now.
So a realistic five-year range runs from about $130 to $175, and nearly all of that spread comes from the multiple, not the business. The single most important factor, then, isn't comparable sales or the next holiday quarter. It's whether the high-margin engines, advertising above all, keep growing fast enough to keep investors excited about the growth story and ultimately defend the valuation premium. If Walmart Connect and membership keep compounding at double-digit rates, the mix shift can justify a rich multiple. If they cool, it likely compresses, and the stock can stall for years even while the business does fine.
There are, of course, reasons for caution. U.S. comparable sales already slowed last quarter, and higher fuel costs in the supply chain weighed on operating profit. Sure, Walmart keeps sending cash back to shareholders through a $30 billion buyback authorization (and notably a small dividend that yields under 1%). But against a company worth more than $900 billion, this repurchase program only modestly moves earnings.
So where does that leave the stock? I think Walmart will very likely be a bigger, more profitable business in five years, carried by the high-margin growth it's leaning into. But an excellent business bought at a demanding price can still make an ordinary investment. At about 40 times earnings, too much of the good news already sits in the share price for me. I'd rather wait for a pullback that prices in the chance the advertising and membership businesses cool before they fully scale. For now, it's a stock I'd watch rather than buy.
