Micron (MU +2.77%) has been an incredible performer this year, with the stock tripling. However, it has sold off by more than 25% in recent weeks as fears grow regarding the health of its business. While it's fair to be cautious, Micron has already told investors that there's no need to fear due to the long-term outlook.
Micron informed investors during its latest earnings call that it expects "tightness" in the memory chip market to last beyond 2027, which should ease some fears. That language, combined with the sell-off, makes Micron a great stock to buy now. If you missed out on some of its initial run-up, now could be a perfect second chance.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The memory chip market is cyclical
Investors are a bit cautious about buying too much into Micron's future because of the nature of its business. Micron is a memory chip fabricator, making NAND and DRAM. There is always demand for these products, as memory chips are important parts of every computing system, be it a data center, smartphone, or laptop. However, there isn't a ton that sets one manufacturer's memory chip apart from another's, so the market is fairly commoditized. With AI data center build-outs causing a historic spike in demand, Micron and its peers don't have the production capacity to meet it. As a result, memory chip prices have skyrocketed, making everything more expensive in the computing industry.
Micron and its peers are the primary beneficiaries of those rising memory chip prices, and this has translated into jaw-dropping revenue and earnings growth for Micron.
MU Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.
It isn't done there, either. Wall Street expects 81% revenue growth in the company's next fiscal year. However, all of the memory makers are building new foundries, so supplies will eventually grow. At some point, the shortage should ease. It could also turn into a glut, which would crash memory chip prices and put Micron's investment thesis in peril. That's why the market is hesitant to bid the stock to a higher valuation, but knowing that the memory chip market supply will remain tight beyond 2027 should ease investors' concerns for the next couple of years.
NASDAQ: MU
Key Data Points
The market will eventually come back around to Micron's stock, although it could take a bit of time. In the meantime, Micron's stock is priced at a pretty cheap 11.6 times expected earnings for its fiscal year 2026 (which ends in August) and 5.7 times expected fiscal 2027 earnings. Those prices appear cheap, but if the memory market crashes, they may actually look expensive. However, with a rosy outlook for at least another year and a half, I think investors are fine to scoop up Micron's stock. Still, they'll have to continue monitoring market conditions and be willing to sell once some of the demand pressure in the memory chip market is alleviated.
