Sandisk (SNDK -0.38%) has been a major beneficiary of the favorable environment for NAND memory. Just look at the numbers.
The company's revenue rose 51% sequentially to nearly $9 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (which ended July 3), while non-GAAP gross margin increased by 6.2 percentage points sequentially to 84.6%. Approximately two-thirds of that sequential revenue growth came from higher NAND memory prices, while only one-third came from selling more NAND.
Against this backdrop, what could Sandisk stock look like five years from now?
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This NAND cycle could be different
Artificial intelligence (AI) is already becoming a bigger part of Sandisk's business. The company's data center revenue rose 103% sequentially to $3 billion in the fourth quarter. Datacenter products made up 38% of Sandisk's NAND shipments by storage capacity in the fourth quarter, compared with 12% a year earlier.
Sandisk is also locking in future demand. Sandisk's long-term customer contracts are worth at least $93.9 billion based on their minimum pricing terms. They also cover more than half of the NAND volume expected in fiscal 2027 and about two-thirds of the expected fiscal 2028 volume.
Management expects annual revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030. The company also expects non-GAAP gross margins of roughly 80% and adjusted free cash flow equal to about 50% of revenue during this period.
The margin target is especially important. If strong AI demand and long-term contracts help keep margins high, Sandisk could remain very profitable even if NAND prices fall.
NASDAQ: SNDK
Key Data Points
Where could Sandisk stock be in 2031?
Analysts currently expect Sandisk to generate about $49.1 billion in revenue in fiscal 2027. From there, assume 17% annual revenue growth from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030, roughly in line with the midpoint of management's mid-to-high-teens growth target. As Sandisk's revenue base grows larger, assume a slightly slower year-over-year revenue growth of 15% for fiscal 2031 and 12% for fiscal 2032. Hence, fiscal 2032 revenues are estimated to be close to $101.2 billion.
Sandisk is currently trading at roughly 4.9 times Wall Street's fiscal 2027 revenue estimate. If the company can eventually convert around half of its revenue into adjusted free cash flow as management expects, a 4.9 times sales multiple would imply a price-to-free cash flow multiple of less than 10. Hence, the assumed valuation seems reasonable if Sandisk can maintain strong growth and margins in the next five years.
If the stock continues to trade at the same forward price-to-sales multiple in fiscal 2031, Sandisk's market value would be about $495.9 billion. Assuming the outstanding share count remains nearly 146.4 million, that would put the stock at roughly $3,387 per share. This implies an upside of around 108%, with a five-year annualized return of roughly 15.8% from its current share price (as of Aug 18, 2026). The estimate, however, assumes Sandisk's share count remains unchanged, even though the company still has $15.5 billion available for share repurchases.
Based on these assumptions, Sandisk stock could reach about $3,387 in five years. However, NAND prices and margins remain the key risks. If NAND prices fall sharply and profitability weakens, investors may be unwilling to pay the same valuation for the stock.
