Tesla (TSLA +2.60%) is not valued as a traditional automotive stock. Much of the company's $1.1 trillion valuation is tied to future growth opportunities such as robotics and artificial intelligence. Robotaxis might be the company's largest long-term opportunity, with some experts predicting this industry will one day be worth $10 trillion worldwide.
Initially, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was very bullish about the pace and scale of Tesla's robotaxi rollout.
"I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year," Musk predicted in mid-2025. That never happened. Later that year, Musk told investors to expect "no safety driver by end of year" for the company's robotaxis. That, too, never came to pass.
At the start of 2026, Musk once again laid down the gauntlet, predicting:
We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval. [W]e expect to be in dozens of major cities by the end of the year.
That prediction will likely not come true this late in the year. But Tesla did reveal some exciting news on Aug. 24 that will help the company move closer to Musk's ambitions.
NASDAQ: TSLA
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How valuable is Tesla's robotaxi launch in Nevada?
Tesla's slower-than-expected robotaxi rollout isn't completely the company's fault. Slow regulatory approvals have also stymied growth. That's what makes the latest announcement so exciting.
On Aug 24, the Nevada Transportation Authority approved Tesla's application to operate a robotaxi service, clearing the way for it to launch 5,000 autonomous taxis in the state. Two competing robotaxi services, Alphabet's Waymo and Aviari, were approved to operate only 1,000 vehicles.
Image source: Tesla.
The expansion into Nevada is encouraging. Robotaxis are critical to Tesla's long-term valuation. But the slow rollout thus far should cause investors to be more conservative in their growth estimates.
I still see Tesla as the most powerful robotaxi operator in the U.S., especially given how vertically integrated its business is. But the path toward realizing Musk's robotaxi vision will be much longer than most analysts expect.
