I am always looking for a good deal, whether that means buying an extra box of Golden Grahams when they're on sale or pouncing on undervalued stocks. The idea that anybody would sell a stock for less than it's worth may seem silly, but legendary value investor Ben Graham (no relation to the cereal) tells us, by way of allegory, how we can look out for these situations.
In The Intelligent Investor, Graham introduces readers to a wacky chap named Mr. Market. Mr. Market's game is to pay you house calls on a daily basis to offer to sell you interests in businesses he owns or to buy from you interests in businesses you own. Sometimes Mr. Market will show up at your door very excited and offer you premium prices for your holdings, while at other times he'll be inconsolably depressed about the future and will offer to sell you what he has for as low as pennies on the dollar.
So to find some of the stocks that Mr. Market is depressed about, I've turned once again to The Motley Fool's CAPS investor community. Each of the companies below had been given a five-star rating (the highest) by our community of investors just 30 days ago:
Stock |
30-Day Return |
One-Year Return |
Current CAPS Rating |
---|---|---|---|
Weatherford International |
(17.0%) |
68.9% |
***** |
inVentiv Health |
(13.4%) |
38.9% |
***** |
Rofin-Sinar Technologies |
(14.1%) |
33.4% |
***** |
Ingersoll-Rand |
(14.0%) |
102.4% |
***** |
China Security & Surveillance Technology |
(12.8%) |
46.1% |
***** |
Terex |
(11.9%) |
150.6% |
***** |
Statoil |
(13.9%) |
41.3% |
***** |
Data from Motley Fool CAPS as of Feb. 16.
As the table shows, these stocks are all still very well-regarded by the CAPS community despite their underperformance over the past month. While these are not formal recommendations, they could be a great place to kick off further research. I'll even get you started with some thoughts on Motley Fool Income Investor pick Statoil.
Why so blue?
Growth is Wall Street's never-ending drumbeat that thumps every company on the head when it gives the least hint that this year might not be better than the last.
In the case of Norwegian oil and gas giant Statoil, the main problem seems to be production. After increasing production by 2% in 2009, the company provided a guidance range for 2010 that suggested production would likely be flat this year.
Plus, as the company highlighted in its most recent earnings release, natural gas prices and refining margins, which in the last quarter were down 48% and 55%, respectively, are providing a major drag.
What the bulls say
While investors should certainly hope to see production levels at Statoil rise over time, it's worth pointing out that -- production growth or not -- analysts currently expect that Statoil earnings are going to rebound in 2010 and grow in both 2011 and 2012.
Obviously the rebound in oil prices since early 2009 is a big help, and a continued recovery in the global economy wouldn't hurt either. As for gas, it's been a pretty dismal market since prices cratered in 2008, but there seem to be a lot of good reasons to expect that natural gas will recover.
Meanwhile, on CAPS, 905 members have given Statoil's stock a thumbs-up, while just 20 think it will lag the rest of the market. Last year, CAPS All-Star starrider78 provided four reasons to look to Statoil for investment success:
1) Ten years of proven reserves.
2) Oil won't stay down forever.
3) The dollar is near record highs, and will depreciate. This makes ADR investing attractive right now.
4) Dividend yield at nearly 4%. The dividend is in an ADR, so as the dollar depreciates, this dividend will be more valuable.
As predicted, oil has had a nice rebound. And Statoil's dividend has climbed as the dollar has weakened, and now sits at 4.5%. Could starrider78's overall bullish outlook on Statoil be correct as well?
Here's your chance to answer: Do you think the recent drop has created a good buying opportunity? Or will Statoil's stock continue to struggle? Let the community know what you think -- head over to CAPS and share your thoughts with the 150,000 members. Even if you'd prefer to pass on Statoil, you can check out a couple of the other stocks listed above or any of the 5,300 stocks that are rated on CAPS.
Warren Buffett has offered a lot of advice over the years, but could this be his best advice ever?