Here's to corporate competition at its best. On Monday, Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Merck (NYSE:MRK) released trial results for their respective osteoporosis drugs at a meeting of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
Lilly highlighted its new, injectable treatment, Forteo, which is clearly meant to unseat Merck's best-selling Fosamax. Forteo's angle is that it encourages new bone formation, as opposed to older drugs, which work against the cells that break down bone.
Osteoporosis results in fragile bones, making the elderly susceptible to dangerous and debilitating fractures. According to the NIH, 10 million Americans are afflicted with the disorder, with another 34 million (or 55% of people over 50) suffering low bone mass, a precursor to the disease.
And clearly, the market could grow going forward. After all, the aging boomer population is about 76 million strong. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, already by 2025, 62.6 million Americans will be 65 and over.
Jockeying for position as the premier player in osteoporosis, Lilly claimed some benefits of Forteo over Merck's Fosamax with the latest trial results, while Merck compared its drug favorably to Lilly's older osteoporosis drug, Evista.
And Fosamax is the big dog in the space, expected to reap $2.5 billion in sales this year, making it a prime target for Lilly. Forteo, launched in December 2002, has brought in about $29 million in sales so far.
Despite Lilly's positive trial results, a possible cancer link in lab rats remains a disturbing caveat to the Forteo story. Cancer has not occurred in humans thus far, but Forteo nonetheless sports the ominous "black box" warning.
Lilly had other good news on Monday, reaffirming its earnings guidance for the quarter and for the year. Several weeks ago, it announced that 2003 profits would be flat compared to last year, with a forecast between $2.55 and $2.60 per share. No doubt, Lilly's hoping it can boost those numbers with a strong showing by Forteo.
You can reach Alyce Lomax at [email protected] .
