If I held Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock, I wouldn't be too frightened. In fact, I might be giggling. Yesterday, the tech and business press was buzzing with descriptions of yet another crippling challenge to the rocketing home-movie wunderkind. This time it's a subscription-movie-download partnership between Starz and RealNetworks (NASDAQ:RNWK).
Why should the Netflix crowd be mirthful? Because the nature of the challenge and the subsequent headlines prove that people still don't get it. Video-on-demand (VOD) technology hasn't caught up with Netflix, no matter what the talking heads predict. That goes for TV-centered offerings as well as computer-based newcomers.
"Hold on there," you say. "Won't the new generations of media PCs and wireless home networks make it simple to get this content out of the den and into the living room?"
Don't bet on it. First off, we're talking about a limited selection of movies and a 20-minute download minimum. Next, keep in mind that home networks are still a pain for many users -- networking equipment suffers from very high return rates -- and most wireless gear doesn't have sufficient data throughput to rival the sound and video resolution you get from an actual DVD. Moreover, no computerized solution can rival the one-button simplicity of a DVD disc player.
I'm a total computer geek, the kind who builds his own multimedia PCs from scratch and runs a wired network throughout the house, and even I have no interest in Real's new service. On the other hand, I won't even bat an eyelash at the upcoming price increase from Netflix. Why? Simplicity: Netflix has it. Multimedia computers do not.
If there is an upcoming market shift to downloadable, on-demand movies, Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) will probably do better, because it's already got a solid idea of how to make a complex media computer into an idiot-proof box. And don't forget that Netflix itself is trying to figure out the best way to move into VOD.
The latter company's subscriber expansion has left slow-moving competitors like Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Blockbuster (NYSE:BBI) in the dust. Though the stock is prone to stomach-churning swoons, and sustained profitability is still on the horizon, there's no doubt that the nimble Rule Breaker retains a comfortable advantage over would-be rivals.
For more Netflix and TiVo coverage:
- Are you nuts over Netflix?
- Explore the TiVo paradox.
- The Fool's Netflix board has experts galore.
Fool contributor Seth Jayson owns no company mentioned. View his Fool profile here.
