Here's a funny little happenstance. I like two European TV ideas, but for quite different reasons. I think Liberty Global
That said, it's not as though the present is too terrible. Total reported revenue jumped 148% in the first quarter, while segment net revenue rose 97% as reported and about 32% on an organic basis (excluding TV Nova). The margin and profitability picture, though, is still a little more complex than average. Central European Media reported stronger operating income (actual income as opposed to last year's loss), but net loss from continuing operations was higher because of higher interest expense, a foreign exchange loss, and minority interest. On the other hand, segment EBITDA more than tripled (and doubled organically), and the company produced a fair bit more free cash flow this time around.
The way I see it, this story is about a core of solid businesses already positioned to succeed (Romania, Ukraine, Slovenia, and Slovak Republic) and two businesses that need to be buffed up (Croatia and Czech Republic). And to that end, ratings are improving in Croatia, though results were down this quarter. In the Czech Republic, it'll take a little longer for TV Nova to reach its full potential -- the company is putting in double-digit price increases that will take time for advertisers to digest, but should position the station for better long-term cash flow generation.
And I still see fertile fields for potential expansion. Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Russia, and maybe even Turkey all fit into the same basic business model and long-term economic rationale. Granted, it's not quite that easy. To buy a station, you have to find a willing seller (and an approving government), and that doesn't come on command. And of course you also have to outbid the likes of News Corp.
As I suggested in my opening, this is not what I'd exactly call an exceptionally cheap stock. If, however, you buy into the growth potential of these markets, it could still make you money in the years to come. This is a riskier than average stock, though, so be sure to do careful due diligence before tuning in.
For more media missives:
- Profiting from Bucharest's Coach Potatoes
- Will Cash Flow Set Liberty Global Free?
- News Corp. Weaves Web
Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).