Papa John's International (NASDAQ:PZZA) issued results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year yesterday. Should you bring home some slices of stock for your portfolio?
The restaurant saw revenues increase nearly 12% to $277.9 million for the quarter. Operating income jumped 26% to $27.3 million (excluding the impact of the consolidation of the franchisee-owned cheese-purchasing concern, growth in operating income actually came in at 37%). Adjusted diluted earnings per share -- excluding such things as an extra week, discontinued operations, and that consolidation impact -- advanced 23% to $0.43.
It was a piping hot quarter for Papa John's, served up with a healthy portion of double-digit toppings. Even though the year didn't see the kind of revenue expansion that the quarter did -- net sales increased a little more than 3% to $1 billion during the longer timeframe -- the adjusted bottom line nevertheless reflected a 15% gain, translating to $1.40 per diluted share after the relevant adjustments. The metrics so far have been pretty saucy, but some measures weren't necessarily so tasty.
Let's begin with quarterly same-store sales, which decreased 0.5% for domestic systemwide locations. The full year saw comps rise 3% -- that's certainly better, but it's not unqualified, rocket-growth performance. The all-important statement of cash flows disclosed a small increase in net cash from operating activities, at just less than 4% for the past 12 months. Accounting for the more than doubling in capital spending, it's easy to see why free cash flow dropped 29%. There's one adjustment to consider, however. If we exclude the consolidation effect of the cheese-purchasing entity, cash from operations actually dropped almost 15%.
What about valuation? Papa John's thinks it can earn somewhere between $1.48 and $1.56 per diluted share in 2007. If we say the company comes in near the middle of that range, at perhaps $1.51, then the P/E ratio becomes, based on yesterday's closing stock price, approximately 20. Current analyst estimates at Yahoo! Finance describe the five-year earnings-growth potential for Papa John's as being near 11%. This data would suggest a PEG ratio of approximately 1.8. The stock, therefore, could be more than adequately valued at its current price.
I do love pizza, but I'm not sure I'd want to buy Papa John's right now. It's a good company, and it seems like a decent enough brand, even among giants like Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Yum! Brands' (NYSE:YUM) Pizza Hut, California Pizza Kitchen (NASDAQ:CPKI), and Pizza Inn (NASDAQ:PZZI). Personally, I'd wait for this particular pizza-themed investment to cool down before digging in.
Pizza and the Fool are a great combination:
- A Slice of Papa John's: Fool by Numbers
- Hola, Papa John's! Ni Hao!
- California Pizza Rising?
- Domino's Pizza Skimps on Dividends: Fool by Numbers
Fool contributor Steven Mallas owns none of the companies mentioned. He is in love with pizza but has never eaten at Papa John's. As of this writing, Steven was ranked 15,763 out of 23,585 investors in the Motley Fool CAPS system. Don't know what CAPS is? Check it out. The Fool has a disclosure policy.
