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Cameco: More Confident Than Ever

By Toby Shute – Updated Apr 6, 2017 at 2:54AM

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Nuclear plants are about the last thing to get shut down in a downturn.

As we noted on multiple occasions throughout the year, 2008 was no cakewalk for Cameco (NYSE:CCJ). The Canadian nuclear powerhouse had sort of a kitchen-sink year, with all kinds of things going awry.

That said, the full-year results proved surprisingly resilient. Revenue lifted 24%, adjusted earnings per share were up 8%, and cash provided by operations came in 12% below the prior year's level. In other words, all quiet on the financial front.

The company's outlook for 2009 is equally important. Given that nuclear utilities like Exelon (NYSE:EXC) are well stocked with uranium, there has been little or no discretionary buying on the spot market. Cameco clearly anticipates further softness in the spot price.

But that's OK -- it connects to one of the key reasons I dubbed Cameco the nuclear option in mid-2008. The company's long-term contracts with utilities -- an investment-grade group that may top even Transocean's (NYSE:RIG) client list -- largely shield it from spot price volatility. Cash flow should thus far exceed Cameco's roughly C$320 million outlay for growth and sustaining capital in 2009.

Cameco can afford to remain calm, and it doesn't need to sit on its hands, either. Given that the company expects about 100 new reactors to pop up within the next 10 years, it actually has plenty of incentive to get busy on the exploration and development front.

With a new Australian-Chinese uranium export channel open, Cameco is understandably active in the land down under. Western Australia is quickly abandoning its anti-mining stance, and Cameco has purchased a major asset from Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) in response. BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) has restarted a dormant project there as well.

As for the flagship Cigar Lake mine in Saskatchewan, which gives the whole uranium market a jolt every time it floods, there's not much light at the end of the tunnel today. A tunnel, in fact, is believed to be the source of the latest water inflow, and sealing it will take the better part of 2009. Cameco says it no longer expects production in 2011. The company will probably get this thing going sometime in the next decade, but I wouldn't model it into my near-to-medium term production expectations.

Cameco is rated a full five stars by Motley Fool CAPS players. Share your own perspective on the uranium giant's outlook with the rest of the Fool community right here.

Fool contributor Toby Shute doesn't have a position in any company mentioned, but he's plenty busy rating stocks over in CAPS under the name TMFSmashy. The Motley Fool has written put options on Cameco shares and offers this delectable disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Cameco Corporation Stock Quote
Cameco Corporation
CCJ
$25.29 (-6.37%) $-1.72
BHP Group Stock Quote
BHP Group
BHP
$48.87 (-4.57%) $-2.34
Transocean Ltd. Stock Quote
Transocean Ltd.
RIG
$2.36 (-7.45%) $0.19
Exelon Corporation Stock Quote
Exelon Corporation
EXC
$41.67 (-0.02%) $0.01

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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