As sports enthusiasts well know, losing streaks can drag on and on. Just ask apparel- and footwear-competitor Nike (NYSE:NKE), which has been outmatched by the global recession yet again.
Nike's fiscal 2010 second-quarter revenue totaled $4.4 billion, down 4% year over year, although sales were firmer than in the previous quarter. Earnings per share were similarly weak, as they dropped by 5% to $0.76.
This time around, however, Nike offered up a consolation prize. Compared to double-digit declines in prior quarters, wholesale orders for future delivery rose by 4% in real dollars. And on a constant-currency basis, orders fell by so little that a home-team ref would've looked the other way. Accordingly, management expects mid-single-digit sales growth for the next two quarters, good enough to backstop full-year revenue at "a modest decline."
But that forecast underplays management's enthusiasm for the company's future. Regardless of when a consumer recovery takes hold, the Nike folks see a leaner, more focused operation that continues to drive profitability and out-innovate the competition.
On that note, the company has achieved big-time success with the Lunar Glide running shoe and Pro Combat line of protective base layer apparel. What's more, the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands have all recently picked up U.S. market share.
There's potentially more good news on the way, too. Upcoming launches include a fresh take on the Nike Air concept, along with new soccer products. Underpinning Nike's every move is a bulked-up balance sheet, which, thanks to strict cost and inventory controls, was flush with $8 per share in cash and equivalents at quarter's end.
A final highlight comes in the form of North American online sales, which shot up by 23%, a performance that echoed the same consumer trends that have been powering results at Internet retailing powerhouse Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and challenger Wal-Mart Stores' (NYSE:WMT) Walmart.com site. Looking ahead, I believe that investors can continue to expect Nike's direct-to-consumer business to headline revenue results.
Of course, we can't round out the quarterly analysis without teeing off on the endorsement subject. Unlike now-former corporate sponsors PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) and Accenture (NYSE:ACN), Nike appears to be in Tiger's corner: Management told conference-call listeners that "out of respect for his time and space he needs, that he's asked for, we'll respect that and we'll continue to support Tiger and his family as we, of course, look forward to his return." (PepsiCo, for its part, maintains that the move to nix its Tiger-endorsed Gatorade drink had been on the drawing board for months.)
However, one Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS) analyst argues that the Tiger scandal should finally persuade companies to reduce endorsement fees, as numerous celebrity embarrassments over the past years have eroded the value of such deals. Cited in a recent Barron's piece, the analyst estimated that if Nike were to renew only 75% of expiring contracts and slash payments on new agreements by 35%, the savings could amount to $1 per share in added profit over three years.
Trading at a moderately optimistic fiscal-2011 price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8, Nike shares don't exactly need the EPS boost to bring long-term investors on board. The earnings increase would, however, cushion the blow should a weaker-than-expected global economy hip-check a consumer recovery.
