Yesterday, I wrote that US Bancorp's (NYSE: USB) results suggested that the loan-loss cycle had peaked. Good news for bank share investors: Today's earnings report from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) -- the nation's largest pure-play commercial bank -- appears to tell a similar story.
Another bank "beat"
Wells Fargo came in ahead of analysts' expectations -- a familiar refrain for banks during this earnings season -- with $0.45 in diluted earnings per share against an estimated $0.42. The bank believes provisions for future loan losses and charge-offs peaked in the second half of 2009 and expects loan provisions to decline throughout 2010. With the exception of Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), net charge-offs as a percentage of total loans remained relatively stable or declined at the nation's largest banks over the past two quarters:
|
Bank |
Net Charge-Offs as a
|
Q4 2009 |
|
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) |
4.44% |
3.71% |
|
Citigroup (NYSE: C) |
1.14% |
1.17% |
|
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) |
4.83% |
5.27% |
|
US Bancorp (NYSE: GS) |
2.39% |
2.30% |
|
Wells Fargo |
2.71% |
2.71% |
Source: Company releases.
Cheaper and better-run
Despite the massive run-up off their March 2009 low, Wells Fargo shares -- priced at less than nine times estimated 2012 earnings per share -- are cheaper than many of its competitors'. The company is also better-managed: For example, Wells Fargo is prepared for a rise in interest rates. That sets it apart from institutions that have been lulled into complacency by the Fed's mantra of "exceptionally low rates for an extended period." If the Fed does begin to raise rates more aggressively than expected, I expect many banks to be caught flat-footed, just as they were in 1994, which turned into the worst bear market in bonds in a generation.
