I've been bearish on Boeing (NYSE: BA) so long, I'm beginning to grow whiskers. But just for fun, today I'm going to take issue with Wall Street -- and the investors selling off the stock -- and lay out for you a short case in defense of Boeing. Fasten your seatbelts.
This morning, Boeing broke the bad news:
- Revenues declined 9.2% from last year, to $15.6 billion.
- Margins slipped, and per-share profits tumbled 25% to $1.06 per share.
- Worst of all, Boeing now admits that it looks like both its 787 Dreamliner, and the 747-8 freighter will not arrive till 2011.
For anyone having anything to do with filling Boeing's supply chain -- Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP), Spirit AeroSystems (NYSE: SPR), General Electric (NYSE: GE) -- that's just awful news. And investors may ask, with all this bad news, why would anyone want to own Boeing today?
I'll give you two good reasons.
No. 1: the 787
Yes, the 787 is posting as "delayed" on the flight arrival board up above. But did anyone really believe Boeing when it promised to deliver the plane this year? (I sure didn't.)
And even if they did, even if the stock suffers as a result of Boeing's latest broken promise, doesn't that set up the stock for an even stronger rebound when the plane does finally arrive? (I think so.) ANA, Delta (NYSE: DAL), AMR (NYSE: AMR) -- they've all waited this long for the Dreamliner to arrive. A few months more won't scare 'em out of their place in the queue.
No. 2: the KC-X
Earlier this month, Boeing and Airbus submitted their final bids to build the Air Force's next-generation refueling tanker -- KC-X. Judging from the weeping, lamentation, and sounds of sackcloth rending in Boeing's PR department, you'd think Airbus had a lock on the contract thanks to its generous European subsidies, and the plunging cost of buying airplane parts in devalued euros.
Not so.
For months, we've seen Boeing gather momentum toward winning this contract. It began with a successful appeal of the initial KC-X award to Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC). Grew with Northrop's decision to drop out of the competition in protest of contact specs alleged to favor Boeing. Grew more as we watched last-rival-standing EADS cast about in desperation (and in vain) for a bona fide "American" company to play the role of its U.S. partner. And came to a head in the form of an overwhelmingly pro-Boeing vote in Congress, condemning the showering of subsidies upon Airbus, and demanding that this unfair advantage be weighed against Boeing's rival when it comes time for the Pentagon to consider the bids.
For all Boeing's protestations to the contrary, I still consider it the favorite in this contest, and the likely winner of anywhere from $35 billion to $50 billion (depending on whom you ask) in KC-X contracts.
You know the old saying: The night is darkest just before the dawn.
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